Economic Predictions for 2009 Part 1/2 (1649 hits)
Category: Business & FinancialRating: 1.46 on 99 reviews (Rate this item) (V)
Submitted by shitfuck (View user info) at 2009-01-12 12:00:21 EST
Hi.
First Quarter 2009
1. Short term market rally after Obama takes over the sinking ship--watch for all the major networks to claim a turning point has been reached. Analysts will proclaim that the markets have pulled through the trough and will start on an upswing unseen since the heady days of 2003-6.
1a. Obama's stimulus package will pass with a rubber stamp, leading consumers throughout North America to feel a little more confident, despite the fact that job numbers are continuing to crash and the real estate market remains frozen.
2. During the First Quarter, Ford will become a recipient of the Auto Bail out money, despite it's claims to be financially sound (for now) it will take the line of credit the Canadian and American governments have offered.
2a. Sometime before the end of March 2009, Chrysler will announce that it is going into bankruptcy protection, despite the bail out money it recieved--think about it like this: How is it possible for a company as large and complex as Chrysler to turn around and re-create its business model in 12 weeks? It isn't. GM and Ford are no different in this regard.
2b. Re: Chrysler--I think there's 3 options 1)GM is forced to merge with Chrysler, the American and Canadian governments will provide the capital, but either way the merger will result in massive lay offs to avoid redundancy. 2) Chrysler is given an extended Auto Bail out package--just more money to burn through so it can maintain the status quo--in this case lay offs and plant closures are part of the package. 3) Chrysler is denied bankruptcy protection and is chopped up and sold off to the highest bidders. Keep in mind that Chrysler is privatley owned and no one knows for sure what its actual financial posistion is.
2c. GM will once again come calling on Washington and Ottawa looking for more money to help it make it through the second quarter--again they will claim that if they are permitted to fail it will cause a massive domino effect through the North American economies and certain disaster. They will also push these so called Green cars that use lithium ion batteries, claiming that they will be in production by 2010. Impossible.
2d. By March 2009, the Canadian and American governments will again be asking how much tax payers money should be wasted on these dinosaurs, instead of using the principals of Capitalism they will think only of the votes they might lose and probably choose to again to cover the big 3s failures.
(2e.--Just a quick thought: when America entered the Second World War most manufacturing plants were re-tooled to produce tanks. I believe that at some point the American government will consider nationalizing both Ford and GM. If they turn them into weapon factories, I wouldn't be surprised.)
Second Quarter 2009
1. The largest problem I can see arising in the second quarter will be the same problem that North America has been facing since August of 2007 when the sub-prime mess became headline news. Expect to become very familiar with terms like 'Asset Backed Commercial Paper' and 'Credit Default Swaps' I know that for some of you investing savvy people, you are already aware of these financial products, and some of the problems with them. I'm specifically concerned with the devaluation of the American dollar and how it will punish companies that do business or have assets in this currency. What's bad for business is even worse for the average Joe tax payer.
2. Right now, you can hear just about every major news source proclaiming that 6 months from now the markets will turn for the better and the recovery will begin. Just listen to any market report out there--they all say this: we expect economic recovery in the second half of 2009. Impossible.
Expect to see unemployment numbers in both Canada and the US to rise beyond all government estimates--I have about ten reasons/indicators for this, if you want them let me know.
3. This isn't breaking news, but obviously as unemployment rises, so will bankruptcy and loan defaults. I expect the second quarter will see yet another round of bail outs for banks, and perhaps an expanding of TARP to include losses from a variety of companies--the way it would work is like this: A large home builder with massive debt applies to the new TARP program to list it's debt (or a percentage of it) under an unclassified/unreported Expense account on it's balance sheet, this way the 'toxic' part of the debt doesn't really show up on it's financial statements and on paper, the company looks healthier than it really is. It's basically cooking the books. The problem here is that the debt now 'belongs' to the government and this puts pressure on bond yields.
4. Speaking of Bonds, expect to hear this 'Bond Bubble'. It probably sounds Greek to you now, but as things progress and the majors pick up on it, it'll be on every Chinese businessman's lips.
Some Special Predictions for Canadians
1. Expect Flaherty (he's our Federal Finance Minister if you're too fucking stupid to know that) to follow every American move to the tee. It absolutley blows my mind that during our last election no one made a point of pointing out how Harper and Flaherty were saying Canada would avoid a recession in September 2008 and would not bail out the Asset Back Commercial Paper market to saying yes, we are in fact in a recession and oh by the way we bailed out the ABCP market without informing you. Absolutley fucking disgusting.
2. The Boom in Alberta is OVER. This means the boom for the East is OVER and no longer will the West subsidize all those really nifty social and infrastructure programs. Federal and Provincial deficits will balloon, especially in Ontario, expect to see the artificial value of your house to fall 15-25 percent. Perhaps more. With oil at $40.00 a barrell most of Alberta's tar-sands projects are unprofitable--for those of you with any motivation, start reading about the NEP and what happened here in Alberta during the 1980's. It's coming again. Gone are the days when a journeyman plumber in Alberta can make a hundred thousand dollars a year and afford a $500k house.
Notes on the Major Markets Ending June/July 2009
1. The Toronto Stock Exchange will fall from its current 8 000 point mark to 4-5000.
2. The Dow Jones will fall to 3-4000
3. AMEX/NYSE/NASDAQ down by at least 25 percent.
I'm working on Part 2.
Bye.
User Reviews
Submitted by The_Cyst_Master (user info) at 2009-10-22 03:54:31 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I sense a boner coming on. Yes. I was right.
Submitted by haikumikoo (user info) at 2009-03-18 14:31:44 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
No Comment
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-03-18 13:14:26 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Those are still solid picks. Like I said earlier--this is a suckers rally.
None of the fundamental numbers have changed, so the fact that citigroup managed to be profitable in Jan/Feb is a fucking lark. Citigroups numbers charged the markets, and with cash on the sidelines, traders are chomping at the bit to get back in. Last Monday morning I was out of all my shorts, including the ones I gave there. It's money being invested on 'hope'. Jobless data comes out tomorrow, particularly important are the continuing claims numbers. Also, American petro inventories are higher than ever and OPEC refused a cut this week. Excess supply, weakening demand. Trouble. The cash will exit. I'm short on all of those tomorrow morning, except DE which I shorted about 10mins ago.
Submitted by sicosemen (user info) at 2009-03-18 12:51:02 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
And what about your lackluster performance here? http://www.ubersite.com/m/121313#2866649
I got out of STI at $13.50 after having bought in at $9.40 so that was a positive for me.
I've been looking at companies like GNW, C, AIG, BAC, FRE, STI (again), etc. to ebb for the past 5-6 days now but some of them are nearing 300% upswings. Is there going to be an ebb or is going to continue this upward flow or just level out?
Further, I'm not asking these for long term positions as I already have that figured out and I'm not day trading on short positions but for a few weeks. I don't do any option trading so shorting and put sales are out of the question.
I look forward to part II.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-03-18 12:25:20 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Doing pretty good here--some things have happened a little quicker than I thought:
1. I was wrong about the market rally, and the stimulus package passing with a rubber stamp.
2. Half right on Ford, they've got access to the credit/bail out money, which is a different story from Nov/Dec 2008, where they said their cash position could get them through this.
3. Chrysler going into bankruptcy protection...not happening fast enough, today they announced they drafted a plan to exit Canada without union concessions, the sabre rattling begins. I'm still a believer that they will fold, perhaps in the second quarter.
4. GM has asked for a second round of 'loans'. But I'm way off on the Green car idea--at the time I was thinking it's the fastest lie they could tell--retooling their plants to produce green cars (which they are planning) sort of counts, but not really. My bad.
5. I'm right on the taxpayer's discontent...I'm not sure why I wasn't looking more closely at AIG, seems like a stupid mistake now. Either way, Americans and Canadians are just about at breaking point over this massive waste of capital called 'stimulus'.
6. The issue of Credit Default Swaps entered into public domain two months earlier than I thought--it's not over. So I still see trouble in the 2nd quarter.
7. As for recovery in second half 2009, I'm dead right on this one--even Bernanke confirms that recovery will not begin until early 2010. So does the IMF. As usual, I think they're wrong.
8. Expanding of TARP, I'm totally right, even though it happened sooner than I thought. The new TALF program counts as TARP 'expansion'. Also, my thoughts on moving toxic debt off balance sheets was dead on--they call it the 'Bad Bank'.
9. Bond bubble, I still stand by it for 2nd quarter, the perplexing part right now is the rise of the American dollar, and gold getting smashed the last week. To me this has all the hallmarks of a Suckers Rally, we'll know for sure by the end of the week.
10. Flaherty, the Canadian public is now asking the same questions I was about 6mths ago. This guy is as incompetent as they come--two faced, and quick to pass the buck. I laughed when I heard him say his mistakes were due to 'bad data'! Hey asshole--I don't have access to all the numbers you do, but I was still able to piece it together, you big fucking jerk ass moron. He should step down.
11. Boom in Alberta...totally right here. Right now, idiots all over my beautiful province are convinced that with Spring comes a recovery in house prices, fools. I had a realtor tell me about something called a 'Super Spike' and that this summer house prices in Edmonton will double! Can you fucking believe it? I told him I'd put a thousand bucks against that, he's too much of a pussy to, I've got his number still, and when the summer passes and he's shitting the bed I plan to call him and rub it in. Fucking moron realtors.
All in all I give myself 73/100.
Submitted by RoadSong (user info) at 2009-03-16 02:38:12 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 10:05:44 PST (#)
Ranking: 2
Isn't there another whole round of mortgage failures coming? Add in the staggering credit-card debt held by many Americans and that means 2009 will be just as bad as '08, if not worse. People seem to think Obama is a cure-all, and if things go south we'll see real panic from the sheep.
Time to move to that armed compound in Montana.
First really good post I've read in weeks.
Yes, I said weeks
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Yes - armed compounds and big gardens may be the reality of the future.
Seriously.
Submitted by Captain_Lurk (user info) at 2009-03-16 00:32:50 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
My pussy is starting to hurt. Thank you, shitfuck, for listening and giving a shitfuck.
Submitted by polyamorousaj (user info) at 2009-02-09 16:14:09 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
PS- I miss you.
Submitted by William_Q_Percy (user info) at 2009-01-16 12:40:43 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
You are the voice of the upper middle class, JDL.
There are going to be huge competitive forces levied throughout the global economy in the next two years, and it isn't going to feel good for a lot of people. What we end up with is going to look very different from what we have today, but will "make sense" once the dust settles.
"when the tide rolls out, you learn who was swimming naked"
Too much was growing too fast, too easily. The shitty firms need to be blown out... badly! What we are seeing is the result of an inefficient economy.
Information and virtual cash were too readily available to a mass of people with not enough education. This was great for those who were "in the know", but its done for now. No wonder the economy is broken - nobody has any clue what generates value anymore. That, and the "rule of thumb" style of due diligence that most investors incorporate could not compete with the deluge of data that is available to joe everyman these days.
Furthermore, we've had a number of major booms one right after another, with no real time to settle back to a baseline level of reasonable growth. Obama's term will be more of the same - searching for the next "pill" to make sure the exponential growth carries on. It won't go away until the boomers are dead or they stop being possessed with "perpetual growth". In all things living, perpetual growth equals cancer. Why is this any different in the world of business? Why do all shareholders demand it?
Focus should shift towards sustained profitability and investment in retaining competitive advantage. The educational system should incorporate more lessons on money management, capital markets, and basic business concepts... but alas, the theives will get smarter, too. No system is truly perfect.
I completely agree with you about the green bubble - but oil prices need to go north for the economics of those projects to look good enough to be sold to investors. Alternative energy will not be real for a very long time... as long as it takes to restructure our lifestyles to something more "organic" (as you put it). That sort of change happens over the time frame of GENERATIONS.
Long term, I am very bullish on oil prices and the wealth transfer that will occur as the boomer generation returns to the earth.
For Alberta specifically this year, hopefully we start to see both price and service levels return to some semblance of "acceptable". The economy will shift its capital to the projects and firms that are still busy, competitive, and generating REAL value. The O&G industry will have a lot of desperate players - it is going to be very interesting... cash will be king and there will be a lot to be had for good prices.
Oilsands players in particular will be doing what they can to get SOME income streams flowing. There will be a lot of fly by night cold bitumen production schemes built in order to fund debt financing, in order to "make it through". Many firms are sitting on a lot of resource, and as long as they can get through the next two years... keeping their eye on the big prize, they (and Alberta) will be fine.
There is going to be a lot of consolidation in every industry in our economy - too many shortages across too many industries. Hopefully the swing doesn't go too low, taking some good firms out with it.
The reality is that the market is still paying out $45/bbl CDN, which is a very good price for a lot of the conventional and existing unconventional projects in the province. Furthermore, the big mega projects will need 50 - 60 bbl oil to breakeven over the life of their project... many will not even be able to start because of technical and regulatory issues for many years (think 2015+). Many owners right now are going back to the negotiating table to see if they can construct their plants in this new price environment... which should help a lot of the higher quality projects get kicked off.
Remember, pilots do not need to be economic - only technically successful. Stay away from big oilsands players that don't have the cash to fund delineation drilling, and pilot construction over a timeframe of 2+ years from today... they will not survive. Many majors will be happy to buy their massive resources for a song. Buffet put a cool BIL into ConocoPhilips (Surmont) in 2008 for a reason.
The ERCB is still sorting out water use regulations as well, which is a major hurdle for many of these projects to go ahead... that is LESS related to global economics (perhaps a weak link exists using the bridge of politico).
The lesson is: temper your growth. Every deal, every project, every investment should be able to fly on its own merit (using REAL rules for value creation). Sometimes things look sexy... but that means the risk is higher. Know your apetite for risk, and actually plan for some of the inevitable.
Submitted by apollo88 (user info) at 2009-01-14 11:43:21 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
little dan is absolutely correct about the alberta thing.
IOL are still going ahead and have sanctioned Hebron which is huge, all of EM's major projects are a go elsewhere too, lessons have been learned.
marginal projects are on hold of course but when the price goes back up to its natural level (around $80 IMHO) they don't want to be scrambling with everyone else.
so yes perhaps a 'boom' is over but it's still v.busy.
Submitted by littledan (user info) at 2009-01-13 23:35:59 EST (#)
Ranking: 1
Plus one because a lot of it makes sense.
I do have to disagree with your statement about the oil "boom" being over in Alberta; I don't know anything about Southern Alberta, but in Fort McMurray (where most of the oilsand development is happening) the so-called "established" companies are fine. Syncrude, one of the largest producers, requires somewhere between $17 and $22 a barrel to turn a profit. Suncor has production costs similar to that.
The big issue right now in this region is a lot of the new developments are slowing down and being cancelled. This means companies like Total E&P, Fort Hills, et. al. are pulling out their interests in the area. But for the mines already in full swing (CNRL, Suncor, both Syncrude sites, as well as the Albian Sands sites), the work is not slowing down. Yes you're right, profit margins have decreased substantially, but it's not the "End of the World", so to speak. The mines in operation cannot shut down overnight; even if oil production shutdown tomorrow, there is at least ten years of work to be done on the environmental side of things (land reclamation, etc.).
I'm not an expert, but I'm involved in this industry. Just my two cents worth.
Either way, when our economy collapses, I'll be on the front porch with a shotgun, burning paper money in my fireplace to keep warm.
Submitted by DonkeyOnTheEdge (user info) at 2009-01-13 21:29:27 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
As long as I'm still employed, I'm cool with it.
Submitted by apollo88 (user info) at 2009-01-13 19:26:16 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
also, you sure seem to enjoy all this bad news.
Submitted by apollo88 (user info) at 2009-01-13 19:24:51 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
part half?
Submitted by Snark (user info) at 2009-01-13 14:24:38 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
I'll slide through this economic disaster just like all the rest while all you peons suffer cuz pimpin hos is recession proof.
Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 13:41:45 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
yeah, it's fucked up who cares, it's just TV shit.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-13 13:27:50 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
The one story I read said one of the producers had made fun of a girl that was sexually abused or something like that--the funny part was that it was the producers father that had sexually abused her.
That struck me as fucked up.
Maddog, I don't have a McJob, and I rarely smoke pot anymore. As for Jeebus, I haven't talked to that slut since the last time she let me bust a nut in her mouth. Thanks for playing.
Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 13:23:03 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-13 13:14:44 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Hey what the fuck is with you racist Quebeccers and this Bye Bye 2008 show? """
what racism? the one about blacks or anglos? jokes were taken a bit too far for such a large audience. this caused so many complaints, people are still bitching about it today and now it has spilled into anglo news.
it's pretty much a lot of misinterpretation of jokes that offended chuch ladies.
Submitted by Maddog (user info) at 2009-01-13 13:18:56 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Wow. What I'd like to know is how you came up with all these "amazing" predictions in between bong hits and a minimum wage McJob. Did Jeebus give you the answers?
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-13 13:14:44 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
The conservatives absolutley lied, Flaherty had even better information than I did during that time, more accurate information that would point to the situation we're in now--so how could he misinterpret it? How? As the Federal Finance minister, I'd expect him to be much more attentive--look at Harpers' financial background, how could he not know how things were worsening? They made a choice to conceal the truth, to sweep it into the background and our lapdog CBC was more than happy to help them out. Total lies.
No one noticed that it was only just after the election, when Flaherty was meeting with the G7 and the American Fed Res. that the conservatives position changed dramatically. I'm not sure why it bothers me so much, it's not like I have any faith in any political leader this country has anyway.
Yes a line of credit is different than a bailout--here's my point, how much of that money has been used? Where did it go? Are payments being made on it? When do we get it back? There is absolutley ZERO information out there as to what is happening with that money. Imagine what 50 billion would do for Quebec--it would fix all those bridges that are falling down and help you all to become fluent English speakers.
As for Dion, he reminded me of a crying little bitch...doing whatever he could to maintain the little power he had. Do you remember when there were rumbles in his party about his leadership? He held a press conference and said these exact lines "I'm the leader of this party and I demand respect" He looked like such a silly pussified wanker. I wanted to tell him respect is earned buddy, but for a weakling like that it would be a waste of my time.
Ignatief will be even worse.
Hey what the fuck is with you racist Quebeccers and this Bye Bye 2008 show?
Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 13:06:27 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
i didn't know alberta got hit that hard. here, the housing bubble didn't get very big. it mostly stopped once apartent buildings weren't profitable cuz rents are kept very low, because a provincial agency dictates by what % landlords can raise the rent (it's usually around 1%). this kept prices more realistic. not to mention that Quebec is not very wealthy.
anyway, so far we're doing ok. and i live in a city of civil serveants so i'm not too worried.
proof, i turned down a job interview today even though i haven't worked for 3 months and half. :-)
Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 12:44:47 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
did the tories really lie?
flaherty may have been parrotting positive economic pundits in denial who kept repeating that we were all fine. harper said he wouldn't provide a blank check to banks. a line of credit is not exactly a bailout, more like a loan.
or maybe i'm mistaken? anyway, the fed still failed. i remember seeing harper repeating like a mantra: "tout va bien!"
as for the coalition, it wasn't the first time it happened, was it? if it's legal, i don't mind it. what kinda bothered me though is Dion's attitude. remember, he won the nomination of the liberal party in a rather dubious way (pact with gerard kennedy). he wasn't even supposed to be there in the first place. seeing him sit in press conferences, sided by duceppe and layton, with that smug smirk of his made me think this was more about grabbing power than the economy.
Submitted by scourge (user info) at 2009-01-13 12:14:20 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
see. it's funny, wuzi, but...
it really isn't a bad idea to always have a nice supply of canned goods, dry rice and beans, water, toilet paper, etc. reliable guns (primarily for hunting for hunting. but i have a gun for self defense anyway, so that too.) and an adequate supply of ammo are a good addition to that emergency store.
you can't predict calamity.
but last night i was shopping and i saw cans of chili on sale for like .$78 and the thought went through my mind that i should buy like 200 of them.
just in case.
DUN DUN DUN
oh fuck.
i'm ets.
Submitted by Wuzi (user info) at 2009-01-13 11:57:50 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
See I've just invested all my money in guns, ammo, and weather-proof storage.
Yee - haw.
Submitted by marginwalker (user info) at 2009-01-13 11:46:53 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
"intelligentsia" Shitfuck
Submitted by marginwalker (user info) at 2009-01-13 11:35:41 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
"As for the coalition, if I were in power I would have lined up Dion, Ducheppe and Layton and had them shot for treason. That simple. They lost the election, then they use some obscure parlimentary procedure to try to take power? Absolutley the most disgusting event in Canadian history. The idiots that supported the coalition should propbably be shot too--metaphorically of course--because everyone knows making threats is a stupid thing to do, even jokingly."
Treason? Dion, Ducheppe, and Layton represent a larger portion of the Canadian public that the Conservative Party.
The alliance suggested by the Liberals, Bloc, and NDP is no more obscure than allowing a minority to govern when a LARGER number of votes landed with other parties. The suggestion makes perfect sense from a purely democratical standpoint....thus is popular government, no?
By no means do I agree with it - nor do I believe the motivation behind the proposed alliance was in the best interest of Canadians for any one moment.
But ask yourself this: When has it ever been?
I'm growing so tired of people pointing fingers out East, dropping their mouths like this is the FIRST TIME (!!!) a bunch of shit has rolled down parliament hill, and flapping their lips like they've just now realized the drollery of our political system.....
Only to forget it when Britney Spears farts.
Politicians today (and politics in general) do NO service to the people apart from creating a political "hollywood" and a gossip topic for the "intelligentcia".
Once you choke down that little nugget, it's extremely difficult to be disappointed by any ot if.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-13 11:14:26 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Last points:
1. What's bad for Alberta is disasterous for Canada.
2. All you eastern bastards are about to see huge waves of white collar layoffs--if you're employed by an American controlled corporation you can count on it. If it's one of the few remaining Canadian Controlled corporations you can count on it too (because we're too small to compete globally)
3. Ask yourself why GM hasn't even looked at the Federal auto bailout plan--is it because GM has no plans to maintain Canadian manufacturing? That's my bet, GM and Ford will pull out of Canada. Full stop.
4. I've been following Peter Schiff for years now, and I agree with him except on two points a) the run on gold, if you want me to explain I will, but I don't see gold going to $2000 an ounce no way. b) the run on commodities--it doesn't make sense to me--why do we need iron ore if theres no smelting plants operating because demand for steel has collapsed because no one is building?
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-13 10:58:44 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
2 part answer because of space...
Anyway, there are radio ads here that tell people to keep spending! You should hear some of them, if you listen to 630 CHED online you can. Realtors are out if force telling people that the value of their homes is about to DOUBLE! There are ads from all the car dealerships saying if you don't buy a vehicle now it will contribute to the slowdown, and that's bad for all of us, so do you part.
I'm fucking serious Caul, what's happened here in the last 2 years is the most bizarre thing I've ever seen. You can drive down the new developments that were completed and it's a sea of For Sale signs. They look like flags on every single front lawn. No joke.
Downtown there's probably 10 large scale condo developments that are in various stages of construction, but none of them are close to being finished--can you believe people were prepaying as much as 475K for this shit? For a one bedroom 600sqft condo that isn't even built yet!
I see the markets getting hit hard in 6mths because of everything that's happening here--and all these numbers (ie. people that have mortgaged a condo that isn't built and has already lost 50 percent of its value) these numbers haven't hit yet. But they will. All the tradespeople here signed a collective bargining agreement that comes up for renewal soon--no way in hell are these guys (plumbers, pipefitters, welders etc.) going to get another raise, especially after what concessions the CAW is going to make.
The province is unsustainable right now. With oil at $40 pb there's no profit, no profit means no development, no development means no jobs, no jobs means no money for mortgages, no money means bankruptcy and defaults. Bankruptcy in Alberta was up about 35 percent last month year over year--that's the tip of the iceberg. When all the excess inventory comes out into the public people will really understand how serious things are here.
As for transfer payments, don't count on it. Maybe ask Saskatchewan-that's the last boomtown left in Canada, and they'll start getting hosed soon too.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-13 10:47:55 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
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Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 02:45:01 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
btw, shitfuck.
what do you think of the handling of this crisis by the federal govt?
i don't like the idea that we're back in deficits. at least we've had surplus for over a decade (at the expense of provinces) but still, i'm sure it could've been less high than the projected 30-40 billions.
personally, i think leaving afghanistan would be a good start. why we are in central asia for a war that isn't ours trying to pacify people who are stuck in the dark age, i have no idea.
in quebec, we are lucky enough that the mortgage crisis is marginal at best and that infrastructure projects had already started. but how much is alberta getting hit by this? especially with oil price so low, is it starting to show?
i'm asking cuz we're gonna need your federal transfers to get through this >:-)
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What our Feds did was flat out lie about the entire crisis and hide it from view until after the election. Google it--Flaherty goes from saying Canada will not follow the US into recession to we are in a recession in a matter of two months. Harper is even worse--at first he says we will not have any American styled bailouts to providing a 50 billion line of credit to AMERICAN banks operating in Canada to help ease liquidity. I was so disgusted during that time, and still am that not a single news source in this country noticed how fast they changed their story after the election. Even now it makes me so mad I could punch the shit out of my cat. Disgusting.
As for the coalition, if I were in power I would have lined up Dion, Ducheppe and Layton and had them shot for treason. That simple. They lost the election, then they use some obscure parlimentary procedure to try to take power? Absolutley the most disgusting event in Canadian history. The idiots that supported the coalition should propbably be shot too--metaphorically of course--because everyone knows making threats is a stupid thing to do, even jokingly.
Everytime I hear of a Canadian soldier getting blown up on some goddamned patrol by a goddamned IED I cringe. What we are doing over there is ridiculous--and they way the Feds sell it to us makes me furious. We have about 5000 soldiers over there all ranks. Say maybe half of that number are combat troops, the rest are support--What the fucking fuck can 2500 combat troops do in a country as big as Afganistan? And yet it gets sold to us as the greatest military achievment since the second world war (btw during WW2 Canada had just over half a million troops, all ranks) All we can do over there is to mount patrols along roads, making us the easiest target out there. What does it cost to make a IED? Hundred bucks tops? And yet everytime one goes off a priceless Canadian life is lost. Disgusting. We should have been out of there last year.
As for Alberta--what is happening here is a joke--you can drive north, south, east, west of the city and see these huge fields that were to be developed, they're all on hold now. You'll see maybe one or two spec homes and a few foundations poured and that's it--can you believe in sme of thes areas people were paying close to half a million dollars for a house that isn't even built yet!
Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 02:45:01 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
btw, shitfuck.
what do you think of the handling of this crisis by the federal govt?
i don't like the idea that we're back in deficits. at least we've had surplus for over a decade (at the expense of provinces) but still, i'm sure it could've been less high than the projected 30-40 billions.
personally, i think leaving afghanistan would be a good start. why we are in central asia for a war that isn't ours trying to pacify people who are stuck in the dark age, i have no idea.
in quebec, we are lucky enough that the mortgage crisis is marginal at best and that infrastructure projects had already started. but how much is alberta getting hit by this? especially with oil price so low, is it starting to show?
i'm asking cuz we're gonna need your federal transfers to get through this >:-)
Submitted by hidden101 (user info) at 2009-01-13 02:06:03 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
i believe a good way for Obama to figure out how to pay for infrastructure projects is to eliminate the billions of dollars a month it costs us to fight at least one of the two wars we are waging currently. i can think of at least one of the two i would be quite happy with seeing end. i've been to both places and have worked in the intel field for both. i think i have a pretty well informed opinion on both of them and that's what i really think needs to be done. you'd have a hard time finding Iraqis that say they feel like they are now better off since we've been there.
anyway, i digress. which is what i always do when talking about the war on terror.
large cap building companies sounds like a pretty good idea now that you mention it... i have a lot less money to invest with these days, but maybe i'll pull out investments in large cap defense companies and see what i can do.
Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 00:54:48 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:27:10 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
I think we are watching the end of rampant materialism, which is a really good thing.
===
i would hope so. i'm one who believes and really adheres to simple living.
but don't fool yourself into thinking this is the end of over consumption.
the consumer may be hangovered but when the economy recovers, watch him partying again.
unless our standard of living completly collapses, expect more black friday stampedes.
Submitted by Caulaincourt (user info) at 2009-01-13 00:38:41 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
strangely ressembles peter schiff talking points.
Submitted by skrapmetal (user info) at 2009-01-12 21:43:29 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:57:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
The best bet for investing is large cap institutional builders. They'll be the first recipients of the Obama stimulus money, I would also look at concrete companies and engineering firms that specialize in infrastructure design/build projects.
-----
MLW is an engineer at such a firm. They are expecting to recieve significant business from any infrastructure projects that Obama figures out a way to actully pay for. All of the similar forms are also so expecting. The key is "actually pay for".
Submitted by corn_nugget (user info) at 2009-01-12 19:35:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Aj, it's obviously: "Ooooh Canada Ooooh Canada la la la la la laaaaaaa, eh?"
Submitted by polyamorousaj (user info) at 2009-01-12 19:18:46 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:05:12 CST (#)
Ranking: 0
St.Jimmy, I read that article and have it saved.
***
Can you teach me the words to "Oh, Canada"?
Submitted by Shlongy (user info) at 2009-01-12 18:13:53 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
It depends.
Submitted by FilledwithHate (user info) at 2009-01-12 18:09:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:42:07 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Buying any kind of property in the San Francisco Bay area is always gonna be a good move. Things may fluctuate (more wildly than we would like), but the city is on a fuckin' peninsula - there's only so much room in which to build. The more people come here the more prices in the city will rise insanely and prices in bedroom communities will rise on a slow but steady rate, even after a bust.
===============================
I have been following the SF condo market carefully for ~6 months because I would like to purchase, and only recently have the prices been decreasing. Not only that, but for the first time, I have been seeing condos in neighborhoods show up in my price range (<$625k) for the first time since I strated looking--like Noe Valley or the Panhandle. In some other neighborhoods, South Beach, close to the ballpark, or way out by Ocean Beach, the prices have dropped quite substantially since November or so. If the prices have suddenly moved so quickly, they may drop more in the near future.
Long term you are right, though, probably a good move.
Submitted by shadow (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:53:11 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
No Comment
Submitted by rob_berg (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:43:02 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Bonds? Didn't he retire?
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:42:07 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Buying any kind of property in the San Francisco Bay area is always gonna be a good move. Things may fluctuate (more wildly than we would like), but the city is on a fuckin' peninsula - there's only so much room in which to build. The more people come here the more prices in the city will rise insanely and prices in bedroom communities will rise on a slow but steady rate, even after a bust.
Submitted by kaos-king (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:35:21 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:57:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
How come you guys don't ask about bonds? Doesn't anyone out there know what a bond is?
______________________________
Oh! I know ALL about Bonds!
I'm not who my favorite was, but I really am starting to dig that Daniel Craig guy...
Submitted by joedaddy (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:08:30 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:57:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
How come you guys don't ask about bonds? Doesn't anyone out there know what a bond is?
***
aaaaaaaahahahaha!
well now, noone has ever seen a bond they didn't like and everyone keeps voting yes to them so of course they know all about them
i've always supported the idea that the next generation should pay for me to play
good one, shitfuck
Submitted by FilledwithHate (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:06:59 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:44:25 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
If you guys are serious about home and or stock market prices improving put your money where your mouth is. I already said 50 bucks to any charity chosen by uber if the majority of my predictions turn out to be wrong.
Filled with hate--can you give me some examples of companies that are paying huge dividends?
If anything, you'll be hearing about dividend cuts in the next couple of weeks.
Earnings season is going to suck
==================================
I ran the Yahoo stock screener for companies with yields > 5%, and it returned 1239 companies. It returns 531 companies at yields > 10%. GE is at 7.8%, Bank of America is at 9.9% for example. B of A already cut their dividend in half and it is very close to 10%.
You are right, though, if they all cut their dividends substantially, then it is not so great, but that is where you accept some risk. Even cutting some of these yields by 75% will still match most insured CD or Money Market investments.
I'm just saying.............some people will go for it.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 17:04:07 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
No no no. I'm not telling you about bonds, go do your due dilligence first.
Forensic there are some great sites with investment dictionaries, Google for it.
Also check out Money Market Mechanics.
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:59:33 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Ok, tell us about bonds.
Submitted by sage104 (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:59:32 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:04:40 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
In other bizare financial news, douchebag extraordinare Joe Francis and Larry Flynt want porn bailout money from the government.
Joe is still angry he got cornholed in prison.
*******************
I smell a "Prisoners Gone Wild!!" video release in the near future.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:57:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
The best bet for investing is large cap institutional builders. They'll be the first recipients of the Obama stimulus money, I would also look at concrete companies and engineering firms that specialize in infrastructure design/build projects.
Utility companies are generally a safe bet during recessions because everyone needs electricity,water etc.
Another winner during recessions are the railway companies. Sometimes.
I'd stay out of alternative energy--lots of people are thinking along those lines, and that will artificially boost the companies stock price. When it turns out they're ten years from production or whatever, there will be another bubble, the Green Bubble.
How come you guys don't ask about bonds? Doesn't anyone out there know what a bond is?
Submitted by joedaddy (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:57:12 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:48:56 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
What do you think of investing in companies that are developing alternative energy (e.g. wind, solar, etc.)? I imagine it would be a very long term thing.
***
you're better off placing your money in CD's especially since the FDIC has increased the insurance to $250k
Submitted by sage104 (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:50:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by SilvrWolf (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:51:46 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Being a contractor, I've had to completely restructure my business from 85% new construction/15% remodeling into about 95% repair and remodeling. I told these fools 20 months ago that the housing market was not just going to collapse, it was going to absolutely implode. Now these same fuckers are coming to me like I'm some kind of fucking prophet. My usual response about the future is not to look for any kind of tangible improvement for at least another 18 months.
In order to feed my rapidly-developing messianic complex, what are your opinions about that prediction? Is it anywhere near accurate or do you think we've developed a feedback loop (with continued subprime lending and over-valuation of properties) that will take even longer to break out of? Or, hell, do you even care to make a prediction about it at all?
**********************
You're a contractor? I used to work for a rather large insulating/vinyl siding contractor based in Lynchburg, but we did a TON of commercial and residential work all around the area...from Charlottesville to Wintergreen to Smith Mountain Lake, Bedford and Roanoke, and even some commercial work (for Chick Fil-A mostly) in NC and TN.
Points on 15 of your posts if you correctly guess the name of my former employer. You can email the results to me at astrasoleil.at.gmail.com.
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:48:56 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
What do you think of investing in companies that are developing alternative energy (e.g. wind, solar, etc.)? I imagine it would be a very long term thing.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:47:14 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
joedaddy, that's a good point. I agree, and it kind fits with my organic reconfiguring idea. I'm going to try to find a few places that fit that criteria and track some listings.
Submitted by messmind (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:47:02 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
No Comment
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:44:25 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
If you guys are serious about home and or stock market prices improving put your money where your mouth is. I already said 50 bucks to any charity chosen by uber if the majority of my predictions turn out to be wrong.
Filled with hate--can you give me some examples of companies that are paying huge dividends?
If anything, you'll be hearing about dividend cuts in the next couple of weeks.
Earnings season is going to suck
Submitted by joedaddy (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:43:52 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:49:45 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Why would real estate prices anywhere in North America improve?
***
because in certain areas you have actual value
value being near jobs, near recreation(world-class destination) and places where most sane people didn't use their house like a piggy-bank, past the true value of the house, to buy big-boy toys
fuck them
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:39:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Silvr, I'm a contractor too, my little company has been beaten up pretty badly over the last 6-8 months and I'm finding that to bring in the numbers I was in January 2008 we're working twice as hard. I said earlier in a response that I believe we are watching the definition of 'Value' changing organically--meaning it's changing despite the bail outs and that all the intervention and crisis really has little effect on what the new definition of 'Value' will be.
I would say that we need to look at what the average single family detached home was selling for in 1992 plus one percent for each year since then as historically (with all the ups and downs) houses appreciate in value at about that rate. When the numbers come down to these levels, I'd consider that one very small step in the right direction.
Obviously you know that a big problem is the excess inventory of houses and condo units built all through North America, and that most of these homes are not even worth the build cost. There are areas here in Edmonton where entire developments have been shelved and the poison of these bad investments hasn't hit the Canadian market yet--but in the next 6 months or so they will and this will force prices down even further.
A new trick that many builders are using is to incorporate their own rental/real estate companies and list the excess homes privatley--this obscures the real figures by keeping excess listings off of the public market and gives a false impression that there still is demand.
When these builders start defaulting and their inventories are liquidated or bought up by the governments we'll be in the third phase of the fall, then I'd expect some pretty bad hits to the major exchanges world wide--after this, the bottom.
Sorry, but I'm one of those people that believes this mess will continue for a decade at least.
Another problem we have to deal with--Unions. Tradespeople everywhere are going to be asked to work for less, just watch--next week you will be hearing about talks with the auto unions and wage concessions. After the auto workers, every union out there will be asked to do the same.The threat will be 'either you work for $30 an hour, or you don't work at all'.
Submitted by FilledwithHate (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:33:08 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
More Canadian predictions than I am used to; I usually don't think much about Canada...
These seem accurate or at least plausible, but I agree with Skrap that the stock market may level out and improve even with high unemployment and other economic problems. Some companies are still reasonably profitable and dividend yields are extremely high; this will appeal too much to investors to pass up. The stock market often improves before the whole economy does, so it does not require so much economic improvement in the 2nd half of 2009.
From what I understand, though, Jack is right about the likelihood of further, or a second wave of mortgage defaults, and I think property values in certain areas at least may continue to decline substantially more. While Skrap's 40 acres and a mule (undeveloped land-except the mule) should be fine, a pricey condo in a downtown urban area or a ranch house in the exurbs may not be good buys still.
And the dollar may be stable while everyone is panicking and buying treasuries as a safe haven, the dollar will probably fall greatly in value because the Fed has been "printing" (actually e-money now) dollars to such a great extent in the last year. Ironically, it will be some level of global economic recovery that will lead the the dollar's substantial decline. Some businesses benefit from a weak dollar though and they may be good investment choices; it won't be all bad. But a lot of bad.
I don't think I want to move to Montana, though. When the Mad Max era hits I am just boarding up my condo and hunkering down with case after case of alcoholic beverages of my choosing.
Submitted by joedaddy (user info) at 2009-01-12 16:23:46 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by polyamorousaj (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:19:41 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
...our biggest mistake was outsourcing production of military equipment.
***
you fail
this is the only (unspoken) reason why we need to keep GM afloat
in case the shit hits the fan somewhere in the world there are no other companies with the ability to ramp up production of humvees, tanks and other misc transportation vehicles
GM along with Lockheed Martin and Colt provide a very nice income, for the US, from many other countries in the world
now, i'm not saying it's right but when you grow up, you'll learn of these things
Submitted by SilvrWolf (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:51:46 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Being a contractor, I've had to completely restructure my business from 85% new construction/15% remodeling into about 95% repair and remodeling. I told these fools 20 months ago that the housing market was not just going to collapse, it was going to absolutely implode. Now these same fuckers are coming to me like I'm some kind of fucking prophet. My usual response about the future is not to look for any kind of tangible improvement for at least another 18 months.
In order to feed my rapidly-developing messianic complex, what are your opinions about that prediction? Is it anywhere near accurate or do you think we've developed a feedback loop (with continued subprime lending and over-valuation of properties) that will take even longer to break out of? Or, hell, do you even care to make a prediction about it at all?
Submitted by skrapmetal (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:40:58 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:18:32 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
...
Did you get a mule with that 40 acres?
Sorry. Couldn't resist.
-----
Thanks for being the one. I was gonna have to do it myself if nobody else did.
Submitted by monkeyswithguns (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:31:03 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
No Comment
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:18:32 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by skrapmetal (user info) at 2009-01-12 14:08:37 CST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:29:20 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Skrap, put your money where your mouth is.
-----
Oh, I am. Just bought 40 acres zoned agricultural (but is unfarmed 12 acres of field, 2 acres of pond, and the rest woods) right next to a partially-developed 200-acre plot zoned for commercial/industrial, and I'm looking at the other half of the duplex my parents are buying and the zero-lot-line house next door to it (both bank foreclosures in an over-55 development not too far from my house). I really am betting. Might keep the 40 acres for a while, for the horse(s), but the houses will rent now and sell in 1-2 years. They're not making any more land, donchaknow.
====
Did you get a mule with that 40 acres?
Sorry. Couldn't resist.
Submitted by rob_berg (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:09:35 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
When are you two coming here?
I miss you.
My liver is out of practice, but willing.
Submitted by skrapmetal (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:08:37 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:29:20 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Skrap, put your money where your mouth is.
-----
Oh, I am. Just bought 40 acres zoned agricultural (but is unfarmed 12 acres of field, 2 acres of pond, and the rest woods) right next to a partially-developed 200-acre plot zoned for commercial/industrial, and I'm looking at the other half of the duplex my parents are buying and the zero-lot-line house next door to it (both bank foreclosures in an over-55 development not too far from my house). I really am betting. Might keep the 40 acres for a while, for the horse(s), but the houses will rent now and sell in 1-2 years. They're not making any more land, donchaknow.
Submitted by rob_berg (user info) at 2009-01-12 15:05:52 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
You make my no places tingle.
Submitted by marginwalker (user info) at 2009-01-12 14:57:07 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
NONE OF IT MEANS ANYTHING.
Word.
Submitted by skrapmetal (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:49:27 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:29:43 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:25:05 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Also, consider the real meaning of Value. In our current system, what really has value?
--
I am seeing a new Craigslist 'for sale' subcategory between cds/dvd/vhs and clothes+acc. 'Children.'
-----
Why buy when you can rent?
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:46:05 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submitted by bozznc (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:30:02 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:13:01 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Ask away, I'm sick today.
Where do you stand on the inflation/deflation debate? I'm on the fence right now, but leaning more towards deflation and the introduction of price controls sometime this year.
As for the depth, I could stack this with economic reports and data, but it's useless considering most Ubersite users are borderline retarded.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Personally, I think we're trending towards natural market correction (ie. Deflation). However, in a misguided, or underhanded attempt to stave off this natural correction, our Federales are only delaying the inevitable.
Price controls make me uneasy. I believe that the Feds have some authority to interfere when imposing taxes and mild legislation, but then again, our current problem wasn't caused by a lack of controls, but a failure or lack of desire to implement our active controls led to our backslide. We need implementation, not additional stricture.
How do you feel about government regulation versus merely choosing to implement the consumer and small business protections we have in place already?
***********************
I agree with you on the correction, and would add that North America is about to really understand the difference between a need and a want.
Not sure on government intervention, I think it's somewhat necessary right now, but I don't expect any real economic growth to come out of policy--entreprenuers and small business will lead the recovery, whenever that is. I think all the oversight in the world couldn't have stopped this slide, it seems to me to be a natural lesson that we all had to learn the hard way.
I'm a little high on cold medication, sorry if I'm not making sense right now.
I
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:32:29 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Scourge, also consider Supply Side economics.
Another prediction I forgot to include--OPEC cuts production by another 1-2 million bpd.
Submitted by bozznc (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:30:02 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:13:01 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Ask away, I'm sick today.
Where do you stand on the inflation/deflation debate? I'm on the fence right now, but leaning more towards deflation and the introduction of price controls sometime this year.
As for the depth, I could stack this with economic reports and data, but it's useless considering most Ubersite users are borderline retarded.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Personally, I think we're trending towards natural market correction (ie. Deflation). However, in a misguided, or underhanded attempt to stave off this natural correction, our Federales are only delaying the inevitable.
Price controls make me uneasy. I believe that the Feds have some authority to interfere when imposing taxes and mild legislation, but then again, our current problem wasn't caused by a lack of controls, but a failure or lack of desire to implement our active controls led to our backslide. We need implementation, not additional stricture.
How do you feel about government regulation versus merely choosing to implement the consumer and small business protections we have in place already?
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:29:43 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:25:05 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Also, consider the real meaning of Value. In our current system, what really has value?
--
I am seeing a new Craigslist 'for sale' subcategory between cds/dvd/vhs and clothes+acc. 'Children.'
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:25:05 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Submitted by scourge (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:43:21 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
'Expect to see unemployment numbers in both Canada and the US to rise beyond all government estimates--I have about ten reasons/indicators for this, if you want them let me know.'
---
i WOULD like to see them, please. out of a sense of wanting to look at other pieces of the mess, not out of any doubt.
thank you, sir.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The best indicator is what small business owners have to say about what they are going through. Look up some small local newspapers and read what they have to say. Big business can hide the truth about the freeze up, and put whatever spin they want on things, small business owners can't.
Also, consider the real meaning of Value. In our current system, what really has value?
And how do we 'value' value.
I think the Neocitrin is kicking in. I'm getting all sentimental and foggy.
Submitted by Snark (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:16:57 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:12:32 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by St_Jimmy (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:00:59 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
While you make some points, none of this will matter after the civil war of 2010.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
--
They've been talking about that quite a bit on Coast to Coast AM. Usually when the guest hosts are on and the topics are science/economics. Instead of the usual on going discussions of Angelic Wars and Shadow People Rapists and the like...
===================
Typical Illuminati response.
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:12:32 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by St_Jimmy (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:00:59 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
While you make some points, none of this will matter after the civil war of 2010.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
--
They've been talking about that quite a bit on Coast to Coast AM. Usually when the guest hosts are on and the topics are science/economics. Instead of the usual on going discussions of Angelic Wars and Shadow People Rapists and the like...
Submitted by Jack_McCallum (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:05:44 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Isn't there another whole round of mortgage failures coming? Add in the staggering credit-card debt held by many Americans and that means 2009 will be just as bad as '08, if not worse. People seem to think Obama is a cure-all, and if things go south we'll see real panic from the sheep.
Time to move to that armed compound in Montana.
First really good post I've read in weeks.
Yes, I said weeks.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:05:12 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
St.Jimmy, I read that article and have it saved.
Forensic, use Reuters, and use the actual exchange webpages ie. tsx.ca, nasdaq.com etc. it takes a lot of digging.
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:04:40 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
In other bizare financial news, douchebag extraordinare Joe Francis and Larry Flynt want porn bailout money from the government.
Joe is still angry he got cornholed in prison.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:02:17 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
This comes from a great article on MarketWatch, for some fucking reason I can't post the link, Google 30 reasons for the Great Depression 2 and it should come up. This was written in November 2008. I have a ton of these but Uber won't let me post the goddamn links!
America's credit rating may soon be downgraded below AAA
Fed refusal to disclose $2 trillion loans, now the new "shadow banking system"
Congress has no oversight of $700 billion, and Paulson's Wall Street Trojan Horse
King Henry Paulson flip-flops on plan to buy toxic bank assets, confusing markets
Goldman, Morgan lost tens of billions, but planning over $13 billion in bonuses this year
AIG bails big banks out of $150 billion in credit swaps, protects shareholders before taxpayers
American Express joins Goldman, Morgan as bank holding firms, looking for Fed money
Treasury sneaks corporate tax credits into bailout giveaway, shifts costs to states
State revenues down, taxes and debt up; hiring, spending, borrowing add even more debt
State, municipal, corporate pensions lost hundreds of billions on derivative swaps
Hedge funds: 610 in 1990, almost 10,000 now. Returns down 15%, liquidations up
Consumer debt way up, now at $2.5 trillion; next area for credit meltdowns
Fed also plans to provide billions to $3.6 trillion money-market fund industry
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are bleeding cash, want to tap taxpayer dollars
Washington manipulating data: War not $600 billion but estimates actually $3 trillion
Hidden costs of $700 billion bailout are likely $5 trillion; plus $1 trillion Street write-offs
Commodities down, resource exporters and currencies dropping, triggering a global meltdown
Big three automakers near bankruptcy; unions, workers, retirees will suffer
Corporate bond market, both junk and top-rated, slumps more than 25%
Retailers bankrupt: Circuit City, Sharper Image, Mervyns; mall sales in free fall
Unemployment heading toward 8% plus; more 1930's photos of soup lines
Government policy is dictated by 42,000 myopic, highly paid, greedy lobbyists
China's sees GDP growth drop, crates $586 billion stimulus; deflation is now global, hitting even Dubai
Despite global recession, U.S. trade deficit continues, now at $650 billion
The 800-pound gorillas: Social Security, Medicare with $60 trillion in unfunded liabilities
Now 46 million uninsured as medical, drug costs explode
New-New Deal: U.S. planning billions for infrastructure, adding to unsustainable debt
Outgoing leaders handicapping new administration with huge liabilities
The "antitaxes" message is a new bubble, a new version of the American dream offering a free lunch, no sacrifices, exposing us to more false promises
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:01:01 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
I'll rephrase the question. My fault for not being specific.
What is the best, most credible site for a layperson to get their information? Same sources?
Submitted by St_Jimmy (user info) at 2009-01-12 13:00:59 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
While you make some points, none of this will matter after the civil war of 2010.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:52:11 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
I use about 10 different sources.
Reutuers, Bloomberg, OECD, Report on Business, the Economist, MarketWatch, every morning and every night after I get home I check over every major market in the world including the mechantile exchanges, LME, etc.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:49:45 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Why would real estate prices anywhere in North America improve? I'm just wondering if there's some data I haven't looked at, or if you guys are sucking on the corporate cock and spewing party lines out of your asses.
Submitted by scourge (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:44:15 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
also, i'd like to see the same sort of sources that forensic asked for.
Submitted by scourge (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:43:21 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
'Expect to see unemployment numbers in both Canada and the US to rise beyond all government estimates--I have about ten reasons/indicators for this, if you want them let me know.'
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i WOULD like to see them, please. out of a sense of wanting to look at other pieces of the mess, not out of any doubt.
thank you, sir.
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:41:13 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Seriously though, who has the best site for the most credible financial news?
Submitted by hidden101 (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:37:12 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by skrapmetal (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:22:02 EST (#)
Ranking: 1
Pretty much agreed, save that I don't think the markets will drop quite so far. When stocks with potential get cheap enough, a lot more people will be able get their toes wet. Of course, more and more people are counting on their online Texas Hold 'Em winning for retirement, so...
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i am also in agreeance here. but as skrap said, i don't think the markets will drop quite as far either. but then again, i was wrong about them when the market took a shit 4 months ago too...
+2 because i <3 shitfuck and because this post was interesting and had substance.
Submitted by forensicgirl3 (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:31:43 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
When will we see lynch mobs going after governmental people and CEOs?
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:29:20 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Skrap, put your money where your mouth is.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:27:10 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
I'll tell you what I think is happening--and might be the light at the end of the tunnel--the definition of 'Value' is changing organically. Despite the American and Canadian governments best efforts to derail this, it's happening and it's unstoppable.
Business leaders around the world are scared to death about it because it can't be measured by current economic indicators--but underneath all the turmoil in the financial markets right now, a new system is evolving. I think we are watching the end of rampant materialism, which is a really good thing.
I believe in Creative Destruction, and that out of the shambles comes a new system that's more efficient and productive than the last. The problem this time is government intervention which seeks to control the new system. They might fuck us all.
Submitted by sage104 (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:27:04 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Oui, Kimosabe.
Submitted by skrapmetal (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:22:02 EST (#)
Ranking: 1
Pretty much agreed, save that I don't think the markets will drop quite so far. When stocks with potential get cheap enough, a lot more people will be able get their toes wet. Of course, more and more people are counting on their online Texas Hold 'Em winning for retirement, so...
Housing and land prices in the volatile FL market have leveled off for now. They may continue to drop a bit over the remains of the winter but I'm betting that they'll rise some in the spring.
Submitted by Berty (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:21:16 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
It's all a bit grim really.
Still, I guess one man (or 200 million men's) misery is another's oppurtunity. Perhaps some good will come from all this?
Submitted by polyamorousaj (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:19:41 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Just read through the first quarter so far- our biggest mistake was outsourcing production of military equipment. Companies like Lockheed Martin and Halliburton are getting filthy rich off money that could've been used to keep the economy afloat. Eisenhower was right.
Reading the rest now.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:17:15 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
I'll back my predictions with a $50.00 contribution to a charity of Ubersites choosing should the majority of my predictions turn out to be wrong.
Submitted by Jeanneee (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:14:55 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Anyone interested in making these predictions more interesting by wagering on them?
Just kidding. Gambling is of the devil.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:13:01 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Ask away, I'm sick today.
Where do you stand on the inflation/deflation debate? I'm on the fence right now, but leaning more towards deflation and the introduction of price controls sometime this year.
As for the depth, I could stack this with economic reports and data, but it's useless considering most Ubersite users are borderline retarded.
Submitted by bozznc (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:09:37 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Insightful, decent depth, and some of your predictions are in lockstep with mine... Would love to get a bit more of your logic on a few things, but overall, +2Live.
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:06:38 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Method I'll send you the map to my secret hide out place, we have guns whores and lots of Lego.
Submitted by Method (user info) at 2009-01-12 12:03:43 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
No one gives a fuck what you think, you have ass AIDS and you smell like Bigfoot's dick
JUST KIDDING I LOVE YOU AND YOUR ASS AIDS