Fantasy Football Picks 2004-RBs (1528 hits)
Category: SportsRating: 1.85 on 9 reviews (Rate this item) (V)
Submitted by DancingHobo (View user info) at 2004-06-29 12:52:10 EDT
This is the second of six articles profiling the different positions in fantasy football.
Part 1-Quarterbacks (http://www.ubersite.com/m/36913)
Running backs have been at a premium in the fantasy league for the past few years. Stars like Marshall Faulk, and more recently Priest Holmes are rising head and shoulders above the rest. The key to a valuable fantasy player is not how much they score, it's how much they score in comparison to others of their position. Your first two picks should be running backs, or you may be left starting a backup or commitee running back. As you can see by the stats below, production dropoff is high from star running backs to average ones.
2003 stats
Priest Holmes-2110 All Purpose Yards, 27 TDs, 1 Fumble, 265 Fantasy Points(339)
Ahman Green-2250 APY, 20 TDs, 5 Fumbles, 222 Fantasy Points(272)
LaDainian Tomlinson-2370 APY, 17 TDs, 0 Fumbles, 220 Fantasy Points(320)
Clinton Portis-1905 APY, 14 TDs, 1 Fumble, 177 Fantasy Points(215)
Shaun Alexander-1730 APY, 16 TDs, 3 Fumbles, 176 Fantasy Points(218)
Jamal Lewis-2271 APY, 14 TDs, 6 Fumbles, 175 Fantasy Points(201)
Deuce McAllister-2157 APY, 8 TDs, 4 Fumbles, 145 Fantasy Points(214)
Edgerrin James-1551 APY, 11 TDs, 3 Fumbles, 137 Fantasy Points(188)
Ricky Williams-1723 APY, 10 TDs, 5 Fumbles, 136 Fantasy Points(186)
Travis Henry-1514 APY, 11 TDs, 3 Fumbles, 135 Fantasy Points(163)
Fred Taylor-1942 APY, 7 TDs, 4 Fumbles, 131 Fantasy Points(179)
Stephen Davis-1603 APY, 8 TDs, 3 Fumbles, 122 Fantasy Points(136)
Marshall Faulk-1108 APY, 11 TDs, 0 Fumbles, 121 Fantasy Points(166)
Domanick Davis-1382 APY, 8 TDs, 3 Fumbles, 111 Fantasy Points(158)
T.J. Duckett-873 APY, 11 TDs, 2 Fumbles, 105 Fantasy Points(116)
Kevin Barlow-1331 APY, 7 TDs, 4 Fumbles, 100 Fantasy Points(135)
Eddie George-1194 APY, 5 TDs, 0 Fumbles, 99 Fantasy Points(121)
Rudi Johnson-1103 APY, 9 TDs, 0 Fumbles, 99 Fantasy Points(120)
Tiki Barber-1677 APY, 3 TDs, 6 Fumbles, 89 Fantasy Points(158)
Curtis Martin-1570 APY, 2 TDs, 2 Fumbles, 86 Fantasy Points(128)
Anthony Thomas-1060 APY, 6 TDs, 0 Fumbles, 83 Fantasy Points(92)
*Parenthesis indicate points scored if receptions equal 1 point
Priest or L.T.?
It seems to be the consensus that these will be the two top selections. If you're lucky number one, which one should you choose? Priest has been a touchdown machine, racking up 51 touchdowns in the past two seasons, nearly 20 more than his nearest competition (Shawn Alexander). In 2003 Tomlinson became the first player to ever rush for 1000 yards, and catch 100 passes in a single season. You should choose based on how your league is scored. If your league counts receptions as points, Tomlinsin's value should be somewhat better than that of Holmes'.
Old Faces in New Places
Clinton Portis to Washington
One of the best young talents, Portis was involved in a blockbuster trade for Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Baily. He will now be the focal point in Joe Gibbs hard nosed offense. Portis won't have as skilled of an offensive line in Washington. There was also questions of his durability last year, as he suffered a chest injury. Portis' numbers shouldn't drop as long as Gibbs uses him in moderacy.
Corey Dillon to New England
Last season, Cinncinati struck gold after starting Rudi Johnson when Dillon was involved in a car accident prior to the game. Johnson shone for the rest of the season, while Dillon sat out. The Bengals traded Dillon after he expressed disdain. New England got the only missing link in their otherwise talented team. Dillon shouldn't have much competition for the starting job. In 2003 the carries were split by Antowain Smith, and Kevin Faulk. The Pats will use Dillon to compliment their #1 ranked defense.
Duce Staley to Pittsburgh
Up until last year, Duce was the featured back in Philly. With newcomers Corell Buckhalter, and Brian Westbrook sharing carries with Duce, his production dropped severely. He now has to move cross-state, where the Steelers are looking to resurect their power running game. He should but up Jerome Bettis like numbers(1000+ yards, 10 TDs), if Pittsburgh is serious about recommiting to the run.
Charlie Garner to Tampa Bay
Garner was a devastating run-catch combination back in Oakland's AFC championship 2002 season. Tampa Bay is hoping to get their first serious running threat since 2001, when Warrick Dunn left the team. Garner is reuniting with former coach Jon Gruden, which might help him adapt to his new setting. At 32 he is past his prime, but he is still capable of putting up decent numbers.
Return to Glory
After leading the league in rushing in 2002, Ricky's yardage, and scoring dropped considerably. Over the offseason, Miami replaced it's entire offensive line, and added wideout David Boston. With an increased passing threat, defenses won't be able to stack the box to stop Williams like they did last year. Williams should return to being a top 5 back this season.
Dark Horse
Michael Bennett-Bennett was sidelined for most of the season due to a foot injury. He returns to the Vikings with his starting job intact. Bennett may be the fastest running back in the NFL, but he hasn't produced many touchdowns. Since he's only 26 he still has room to grow. I'm expecting at least 1500 yards from him this year.
Where they'll be Selected
Holmes 1st-2nd overall
Tomlinson 1st-2nd overall
Portis 3rd overall
McCallister 3rd-6th overall
*A. Green 4th overall
Alexander 5th overall
Lewis 6th-7th overall
*James 8th overall
**R. Williams 9th overall
Taylor 1st-2nd round
M. Faulk 2nd round
Barlow 2nd round
D. Davis 2nd-3rd round
S. Davis 2nd-3rd round
Johnson 2nd-3rd round
Dillon 2nd-4th round
Henry 2nd-4th round
*Bennett 3rd round
*Barber 3rd-4th round
xWestbrook 3rd-5th round
xShipp 4th-5th round
J. Jones 4th-5th round
xK. Jones 4th-6th round
Staley 4th-6th round
xGarner 5th-6th round
xMartin 5th-7th round
T. Jones 5th-7th round
xSuggs 6th-8th round
xDuckett 6th-8th round
xBrown 7th-8th round
*Value pick
**Draft steal
x Possible commitee back
User Reviews
Submitted by Snuggles_The_Assassin (user info) at 2004-06-29 23:01:19 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
GodKing I am in Buffalo don't keep Henry. I have a few friends on the Bills and thye gave me that tip for fantasy. Everyone out there DON'T draft Henry or Willis, it's going to be a 50/50 by week 4 and then if Willis breaks out he'll be the starter.
Submitted by DancingHobo (user info) at 2004-06-29 22:43:12 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Heres a question. Where would you like to be as far as draft order is concerned?
I'd like to be towards the end, since I have my eye on Ricky Williams. I wouldn't pick him if I had a top 5 pick though. Another advantage of picking towards the end is that you can plan ahead, since your picks are close together.
Submitted by antluvdog (user info) at 2004-06-29 22:10:08 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I had Jamal AND Deuce.
Submitted by Stabkill (user info) at 2004-06-29 21:08:35 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Have you looked at the schedules this year? I'm a Green fan... But I'm going to say LT.
The bears have some big guys up front now, so that's 2 games Green may not get away with going apeshit all over a team.
Detroit has improved, as well. And the Packers schedule is tougher and the team may lose McKenzie (or has that been resolved)? With less of a secondary defense, and I can only hope someone steps up. Otherwise it will be relying on Favre to carry the team.
Green is still the best thing the offense has going for them, however.
Good luck in your picks. I can't do that stuff anymore.
Submitted by Envenom (user info) at 2004-06-29 20:49:08 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Lee Suggs will be the sleeper steal of the draft!
(Unless William Green by some miracle suddenly gets his shit together, stops smoking weed and getting stabbed by his wife and they end up sharing time)
Submitted by BLITZKREIG_BOB (user info) at 2004-06-29 20:38:40 EDT (#)
Ranking: 1
Tomlinson over Holmes. Holmes is injury-prone, and has spent his first five years or so hampered with leg injuries until he had his breakout season last year. Tomlinson is younger, granted his team sucks goat balls, but being on a lousy team may be advantageous to a RB - he may see more carries than a RB on a decent team.
Submitted by godking (user info) at 2004-06-29 16:56:05 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I had (and will have this year) Priest and Ahman. We get to keep a third, which will be either Anguan Boldin or Travis Henry. My league plays head to head, and I lost in a very close match to a guy who had Randy Moss, Tomlinson and Peyton. However, It was Brett Favre's miracle game keeping Ahman off the field against the league's worst run D coupled with a huge Raven Defense output that beat me. Holmes outplayed Tomlinson.
Holmes worst point is he is often on the bench after halftime because the Chiefs have put the game away. However, a TD is still a TD and worth more than anything else. Don't forget Ahman Green who is younger than Holmes and looks to be every bit as involved in the Packer offense this year.
Travis Henry should bounce back with a more run oriented offense, even if he does lose a few carries to McGahee. Henry will play through injuries, and should score more.
Jamal Lewis puts up enormous numbers, but gets few receptions.
Here's my picks for best fantasy performers for 2004:
1: Tomlinson/Holmes -its a tie.
2: Ahman Green- rushing title possible this year?
3: Deuce McAllister-Saints can't win, but Deuce can score at will.
4: Jamal Lewis- still gets 500 yards against the Browns.
5: Ricky Williams- should have a better season
GK
Submitted by DancingHobo (user info) at 2004-06-29 14:24:06 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
LaDainian has drawn many comparisons to Barry Sanders, who thrived on a mediocre team. He also has youth on his side(L.T. 25, Priest 30), which means he should go first in most keeper leagues.
I was using the point system Yahoo has. Draft positions were based on the mock drafts on http://www.antsports.com/
Submitted by spedmonkey (user info) at 2004-06-29 12:57:59 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Meh. Again, I don't know how your league is scored, but for us, QBs get the majority of fantasy points. There is always a run on QBs first, with runningbacks next and then WRs. However, just sticking to RBs, I'd be a little wary of LaDanian, just because he's on a terrible team, and is their only offensive threat. That means opposing defenses can concentrate on him, and challenge Rivers to pass on them. So I think I would definitely take Holmes over LT.