Taking a Gamble. (679 hits)
Category: NoneRating: 1.07 on 19 reviews (Rate this item) (V)
Submitted by GodChicken <Monty> (View user info) at 2005-06-07 14:20:41 EDT
A lot of stuff has been said about "Intelligence" over the last couple of years, and a lot of scoffing and badmouthing goes on. We're going to play a little game here, and see what you come up with. At the bottom as the first comment will be the results.
Let's set the stage.
Country Red has been at odds with you for 15 years, following a drastic upheaval in which the government was altered from a constitutional monarchy to a totalitarian regime reinforced by the military. The country is controlled by the ruling clan, composed of several dozen families. These families represent over 75% of the total wealth of the entire country, and are entrenched in the governmental ministries and major industries, owning most of what was not annexed by the government itself after the revolution. The rest of the population is fairly destitute, with promising individuals rising and falling by means of favor in the eyes of one or more of this ruling clan. Dissidents tend to flee the country or are framed for crimes and imprisioned. Their past aggressions have not been successful but still caused a good deal of harm.
The country's borders are closed and UN agencies are no longer being allowed inside, and have not been for approximately 8 years. Last UN-based reports revealed that several facilities *may* have staff, knowledge, and equipment to develop weapons in violation of proliferation treaties. Outraged, the government expelled international aid workers and "watchdog" organizations, citing industrial espionage and general anti-government activities by these foriegners.
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You've been watching for a long time now via satellite images and HUMINT. HUMINT being reports from refugees, defectors, and rebels. Most of the reporting deals with human and civil rights violations, and some are actually proven to be outright lies. Individuals with an agenda, seeking funding to help overthrow the government in Red for their own reasons, cannot always be trusted. The churned up field in the countryside that one rebel said was a mass grave recently became a new incinerator, trucks appear to be bringing trash to it.
Recent reporting says that an unknown facility outside Hanslope is associated with Red government's research into ballistic missiles. Nearby Fort Hanslope is known to be home to Red's single missile brigade and it's few foreign-purchased launcher systems.
The satellite imagery below shows the region, and a zoomed in view of the facility. There appears to be a security fence around it, a maintenance area to the southwest, a guardshack to the northwest, restricting entry from the city of Hanslope, and a small VIP housing area to the northeast. we know this much, because of the expensive cars outside the housing, and the types of trucks at the maintenance area. Recent word from locals confirms that guards turned away a shepard moving his sheep flock too close. No description on how the guards were dressed or armed. Trucks have been seen transporting crated material to the city and the nearby base.
A scan by a spectral imaging system aboard one of your satellites confirms that the exhaust coming from the "pyramid" looking building contains oxides and other molecular compounds known to be part of pyrotechnics and solid rocket boosters.
It is known Red had aspirations towards making and developing ballistic missiles from years ago.
It is known that the chemical emissions confirm some sort of activity involving pyrotechnics is ongoing.
You have gotten several reports that this facility is involved with the nearby missile Brigade. Trucks have been seen transporting crated material to the city and the nearby base.
It is known that guards keep people away.
A VIP stays at the nearby housing area. It could be inferred that this is the representative of the government, overseeing the operations.
You now have a choice.
You can order an air strike destroy the facility and protect your country and others in the region.
You can do nothing with the information you have. Releasing the information may get valuable sources killed. What do you do?
User Reviews
Submitted by c1ndy (user info) at 2005-06-15 12:26:26 EDT (#)
Ranking: 1
sinister
Submitted by Phi (user info) at 2005-06-15 07:44:05 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
No Comment
Submitted by DCWoody (user info) at 2005-06-09 14:03:45 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
*cough*privatemansion*cough*
Submitted by Crystle (user info) at 2005-06-09 13:38:26 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
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Submitted by GodChicken (user info) at 2005-06-08 10:52:18 (#)
Ranking: -2
Submitted by Sabrina (user info) at 2005-06-08 10:46:06 (#)
Ranking: 0
I have many pictures of myself. I'm sure I'd be called all kinds of names if I was to post another one, though. Contrary to what you read here, I'm not fishing for compliments, I just wanted to try to fit in. Obviously that's not going to happen.
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Someone go +2 one of my posts for being the one to get that through her head.
Submitted by Kre8rix (user info) at 2005-06-08 13:34:25 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by GodChicken (user info) at 2005-06-08 10:52:18 (#)
Ranking: -2
Submitted by Sabrina (user info) at 2005-06-08 10:46:06 (#)
Ranking: 0
I have many pictures of myself. I'm sure I'd be called all kinds of names if I was to post another one, though. Contrary to what you read here, I'm not fishing for compliments, I just wanted to try to fit in. Obviously that's not going to happen.
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Someone go +2 one of my posts for being the one to get that through her head.
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I would've responded on her post, but I really just want her to go away.
So here you go.
Submitted by Flack (user info) at 2005-06-07 22:42:36 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Blowing shit up kicks ass!
Submitted by AlwaysAnEagle (user info) at 2005-06-07 17:52:45 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I love this stuff. My favorite classes in school dealt with stuff like this, as well as my favorite training courses in the government.
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Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:24:41 (#)
Ranking: 2
Are we blowing up England?
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I think the more important question is CAN we blow up England.
Submitted by simple_catalyst (user info) at 2005-06-07 16:50:45 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
No Comment
Submitted by GodChicken (user info) at 2005-06-07 15:23:34 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by MyNameIsTim (user info) at 2005-06-07 15:14:57 (#)
Ranking: 2
those two choices seem a little extreme. i can't imagine its always black and white
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not necessarily black and white, but think about it. you either choose to act in some way, or you do nothing at all.
simply releasing the information would likely reveal the source to the government and cost you what had been up until then a steady stream of info on the ground, where you cannot go.
Thats partly why things remain in the classified arena, rather than public knowledge. Add more and more of these sort of things together over time and you get a false picture that looks pretty convincing.
This is just a thought experiment I designed on the fly. Does it make you wonder what is going on, and what just doesn't get talked about? Does it make you appreciate on some level, what all these analysts try to put together?
Then my job is done.
Submitted by MyNameIsTim (user info) at 2005-06-07 15:14:57 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
those two choices seem a little extreme. i can't imagine its always black and white
Submitted by Affinity (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:52:02 EDT (#)
Ranking: 1
ring them up and ask them to 'play nice'
Submitted by badassmofo (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:40:24 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by BLITZKREIG_BOB (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:39:22 (#)
Ranking: 2
I'd bomb Gayhurst Wood.
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I believe Gayhurst wood also
Submitted by BLITZKREIG_BOB (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:39:22 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I'd bomb Gayhurst Wood.
Submitted by badassmofo (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:37:12 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
huh huh huh "Gayhurst Wood"
No seriously great exercise.
Submitted by satchel (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:31:30 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Must be even more difficult to make the right decision if higher-ups with an agenda want the facts read a certain way.
Submitted by JonnyX (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:30:48 EDT (#)
Ranking: -1
I won't rate this -2, since you did a fair amount of work on it, but there is no point to this post.
What you also fail to mention is that there is a uranium separation plant underneath this factory.
Submitted by GodChicken (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:27:42 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
was just a photo set I found. it worked for the purposes I had here.
I'm not trying to push a particular point of view, just give some insight into how things get fused together and sometimes turn out to be terribly wrong, but seem right at the time.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:24:41 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Are we blowing up England?
Submitted by GodChicken (user info) at 2005-06-07 14:23:42 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
If you bombed it, congratulations.
You blew up a government-owned fireworks factory, making stuff for the upcoming 10 year anniversary of the end of the revolution and hailing the rise of the ruling family. The ruling clan had been spreading disinformation that leaked to the rebel group supplying you with intel.
Israel's 1981 airstrike on Iraq's Osirak nuclear reactor is an example of this.
Was Iraq at that time trying to create weapons?
We face the same questions today with Iran's program.
Intelligence is hard work people. Many many things go into it, and they're not always right.