NFL Week 4 Picks (621 hits)
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Submitted by Jay Peg (View user info) at 2006-09-29 23:52:55 EDT
Last week...
Last week sucked.
It sucked BAD...
But thankfully, it didn't suck that bad for me exclusively. In the NFL, home teams went 4-10. FOUR and TEN.
Unbelievable.
Favored teams went 4-10 as well!
I was pissed, because I went 7-7 against the spread last week, and I lost 4 games I thought were locks. (NE win, Ari win, Chi +4 and Car +3)
Vegas oddsmakers must have LOVED it, though.
Anyway, this is Week 4 now. Nitty brought up some good points after last week, so again this is evolving a bit.
He pointed out that doing win/spread/points was skewing things a bit, since win and spread we generally the same on my picks.
I looked at the numbers, and he was prety much right.
So, now I'll be doing JUST picks against the spread. No winner, no Over/Under. He suggested money line picks, but I don't think so.
As an added feature, I'll point out the 6 games each week I would personally play, as well as the standard 4 games with commentary.
Now, since I'll just be doing the spread, It'll change up my overall record a bit. Through 3 weeks against the spread, I'm 27-18. In personal games (and I know they haven't been listed previous) I'm 15-3. (The three personal losses against the spread were Denver/StL in week 1, Denver/KC in week 2 and Car/TB week 3)
So, here we go with Week 4.
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The first game is the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Washington Redskins. (Personal Pick #1)
Jags are giving 3 points here, and the only reason it's so close is because it's at FedEx Field. If this were in Jacksonville, it'd probably be 9 or 10. Why? There is *NO FUCKING WAY* Brunnell does what he did against Houston again. Twenty-two straight completions? Against the Jacksonville D, he'll be lucky to string together 4 in a row.
And the Jag offense is showing signs of life. If Del Rio lets Leftwich play to WIN instead of NOT LOSE, they'll be VERY good. especially with their rotating backfield.
My pick? *Jacksonville will cover.*
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Next up is the Indianapolis Colts at the New York Jets.
Colts come into this game favored by 9 on the road. No, that's not a typo. Nine points on the road. This is the biggest road favorite of the YEAR so far. I don't get it, though.
I know the Jets defense isn't really that good, but the Colts are so one dimentional, it's not even worth talking about their running game. That lets the Jets drop 6 or 7 back every down, and while it won't stop Manning, it'll slow him a bit. Plus, the Jets offense has life with Pennington and Coles and a solid OLine, and they'll be able to run against the Colts D.
My pick? Colts will win, but the *Jets will cover.*
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And now my Habeeb Special, the Seattle Seahawks at the Chicago Bears. (Personal Pick #2)
Bears are giving 3.5. Take it. Take it now. Take it hard and fast. Take it like the slu... Wait, sorry... Had the porno up too loud.
But seriously, the Seahawks are a different team without Alexander. The talk about the 'Hawks right now is the 4-receiver passing attack they showed last week, but I don't buy it. Every team has a 4-receiver set in their playbook now, so it's not revolutionary. Their #1 receiver has only played a single game so far, and they're not going to be able to playfake as well as normal. As long as Chicago keeps Seattle from a quick early lead, Bears defense will dominate this battle.
Seattle has a good D as well, but Grossman is beginning to show that when he's healthy, he justifies the first round pick. Add in a couple of good receivers in Muhammed and Berrian and the backfield combo Jones/Benson and it's just too much.
My pick? Take the *Bears and the points.*
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The last game this week is the San Diego Chargers at the Baltimore Ravens.
The Chargers are 2.5 point favorites here.
The Ravens defense is shaping up to be as good as the 2000 team that won the Super Bowl. Lewis, Reed and McAllister are if not the best at their positions, in the top 3. Ngata is plugging up the middle of the line, allowing Lewis to recognize and react to the offense, and that's scary. On the downside, though. Reed and Ngata are questionable for the game.
San Diego has a playmaker of it's own in Shawne Merriman to match the Ravens Lewis. He wears 56, and he IS Taylor-esque. Unlike the Ravens, though, the rest of the defense flies under the radar. But don't let that fool you, they're one of the best.
Funny though, with all this talk about the defenses, it will be the offense of San Diego that decides the game. Tomlinson/Gates/McCardell/Rivers.
My pick? *Chargers with the points.*
Now for the other ten games:
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Minnesota (+1) at Buffalo (Personal Pick #3)
Pick? Minnesota wins outright.
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Dallas (-9.5) at Tennessee
Pick? Dallas with the points.
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San Francisco (+7) at Kansas City (Personal Pick #4)
Pick? San Francisco covers.
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New Orleans (+7) at Carolina
Pick? Carolina
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Arizona (+7.5) at Atlanta
Pick? Cards cover. (God, here's to hoping Warner breaks a toe this weekend)
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Miami (-3.5) at Houston
Pick? Do I have to? Houston
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Detroit (+6) at St. Louis
Pick? St. Louis
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New England (+6) at Cincinnati (Personal Pick #5)
Pick? Cincy
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Cleveland (-3) at Oakland (Personal Pick #6)
Pick? With the Raiders, it will never change. Cleveland by waaaay more than 3.
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Green Bay (+11) at Philadelphia
Pick? Philly
Byw Weeks: Broncos, Giants, Bucs, Steelers
User Reviews
Submitted by foster (user info) at 2006-11-11 11:59:23 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
http://www.ubersite.com/m/95651
Submitted by Butler (user info) at 2006-10-02 19:11:52 EDT (#)
Ranking: -1
-1 because you underestimated the Browns shittiness. (Trust me when it comes to the Browns, I'm from Cleveland) Always bet against them when they are picked to win. Once they are eliminated from the playoffs, bet on them to upset whoever they play.
Submitted by JonnyX (user info) at 2006-10-02 18:58:25 EDT (#)
Ranking: 1
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-01 20:08:54 (#)
Ranking: 0
Holy highwater.
I'm 5-7, favorites are 5-7. Cincy got OWNED by the Pats, Washington actually looked good 2 weeks in a row, and AGAIN... A-FUCKING-GAIN Carolina couldn't cover the spread. They're 0-4 this year...
And how iun the FUCK did San Diego let Baltimore score on that final drive? Their offense looked like SHIT for the first 50 minutes of that game...
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Fuckin Schottenheimer played like a pussy in the second half and tried to sit on the lead - we're not happy about it here I can tell you
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-02 14:30:51 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
These last two weeks have just been... They've been odd.
I got Indy right, only because I knew Mangini has his head wrapped around Manning from his time in New England. NO way did I think there'd be 3 lead changes in the final 2 minutes, though. An amazing game to watch, I'd imagine, except since I'm in an AFC West town, I got SD/Baltimore.
But because the league has been so skitzo this year, I'm pretty sure Philly will cover the 11 points, but there's that little nagging feeling that MAYBE Green Bay will have the "up" game while Philly comes in overconfident...
I seriously hate this season's first quarter.
Submitted by nitty34 (user info) at 2006-10-02 10:36:48 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
And based on what you said to Shlongy:
NO ONE is ever 75%. Ever. Fucking ever.
If they say they are, they're lying. Or, they're on a streak that will most surely level out and crash back down to 58-62% over the course of a season.
60% is excellent. It will make you money, unless, like me, you're an idiot and play games for different amounts. This week in college foots every single play was for $50. I was up pretty well going into Sunday. Had I played $100 per game on Sunday like I normally do, I would have been up an additional $470, but I got greedy and dropped too much on my 'big plays.'
By the way, went 8-3, not 7-3 on Sunday like I said a minute ago.
Keep this in mind:
No matter HOW well you cap a game, 50% of the time it's luck. It's like flipping a coin. Half the time. The people who can pick logical winners the OTHER half of the time are the ones that make the money.
Submitted by nitty34 (user info) at 2006-10-02 10:30:48 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
My weekend was a clusterfuck of vig.
Went 7-3 but ended up losing the juice based on amounts played.
Indy was a large play for me. That was not good.
Jax was another large play. That blew, too.
Also had Seattle +4. That wasn't even close.
On a good note, I did correctly pick:
Buffalo
Atlanta
New Orleans
Baltimore
Kansas City
New England
Indy OVER
Seattle OVER
So I'm sitting +440 thanks to college foots.
Monday night plays:
Take the Eagles and the over. They win by 4 touchdowns at home vs. a weak GB defense.
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-10-02 02:47:07 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Beeb. I cant believe you. You beat those coffee sippin emo fags from Seacrapple 37-6. Not 34. Damn, you're slipping.
Submitted by ChristPuncher (user info) at 2006-10-02 00:13:16 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
FUCK YEAH
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
WE BEAT DEM SISSY COFFE DRINMKIN EMO FAGS FROM SEACRAPPLE 34-6
NOW DO U CHUMPS BALEEEVE?????
GO BEARS WOOO!!!!!!!
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-10-01 23:12:10 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
This was a rough week. I'm going to have to start making picks to save all you kids.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-01 22:59:01 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Shlongy, have you seen the overall record against the spread this year? It's fucking appalling.
As of the end of Chicago/Seattle, favorites are 25-29-5. "Experts" all over the place (radio, TV, websites, Vegas tiplines, house bettors) are lucky to be floating at 60% right now.
I doubt anyone (and unless folks have paystubs or previous posts to prove it) I'm gonna doubt anyone here is running above 75% right now.
Plus, you're getting teams that one week look nothing like they did the week before.
NE loses to Denver at home and looks like shit, and then they go WILD on Cincy *in* Cincy.
Buffalo is a few plays from being 0-3, and they beat a Vikings team that took the best team in the NFC to a last second field goal.
Redskins in week 1&2 make the ghost of George Allan cry, and the past 2 weeks, they look like they did in 1987.
Shit, even the Broncos looked like they should be lucky to beat a 1-AA team the first two weeks, and then they plant the Pats like corn.
We're 1/4 of the way through the season. As this point right now, I'm 33-25. (didn't pick Miami/Pitt)
For someone who hasn't done picks in... lesse... 4+ years, and with the limited time and resources, it ain't bad. Ain't great, but ain't bad.
Submitted by Shlongy (user info) at 2006-10-01 21:45:24 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
Give it up because you fucking stink.
Submitted by goferforhire (user info) at 2006-10-01 20:14:40 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I can't believe the Jaguars lost to the fucking Redskins. I'm about to kill a bitch.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-01 20:08:54 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Holy highwater.
I'm 5-7, favorites are 5-7. Cincy got OWNED by the Pats, Washington actually looked good 2 weeks in a row, and AGAIN... A-FUCKING-GAIN Carolina couldn't cover the spread. They're 0-4 this year...
And how iun the FUCK did San Diego let Baltimore score on that final drive? Their offense looked like SHIT for the first 50 minutes of that game...
Submitted by Bubba2341 (user info) at 2006-09-30 18:25:38 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by TomAce (user info) at 2006-09-30 10:49:27 (#)
Ranking: 2
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V
Is a little girl. Bitch, bitch, bitch. Christ man. The title SAYS NFL. If you don't like it, don't read it. Instead you waste time with your verbal flatulation. Douche.
**********
The Mighty Apollo is not a douche, just a brainless foreign fuckstick who is stuck on himself.
Kinda like shit on his fur...
Submitted by rob_berg (user info) at 2006-09-30 17:34:49 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Good on ya.
Submitted by Wiggles (user info) at 2006-09-30 17:22:59 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
I'd say you were wasting your time with all this stupid bullshit, but your time is worthless anyway.
Submitted by nyxmar (user info) at 2006-09-30 11:26:02 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Sorry Tiger Lilly, but go Bengals, we gonna whup ya
Submitted by TomAce (user info) at 2006-09-30 10:49:27 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
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Is a little girl. Bitch, bitch, bitch. Christ man. The title SAYS NFL. If you don't like it, don't read it. Instead you waste time with your verbal flatulation. Douche.
Submitted by apollo88 (user info) at 2006-09-30 09:51:56 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
is there ANYONE even slighty interested in this?
If there is one thing more boring than american football it is sociopathic borderline autists talking about american football in a too loud voice while everyone else's eyes glaze over.
STFU GREENING.
Submitted by TigerLilly (user info) at 2006-09-30 03:42:58 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Go pats.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-09-30 01:46:44 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Aw, c'mon Rad. At least gimme a reason!
Submitted by rad1101 (user info) at 2006-09-30 01:42:07 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
:(
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-09-30 01:40:51 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
I'm guessing Assh is drunk?
Submitted by hot_pocket (user info) at 2006-09-30 01:00:40 EDT (#)
Ranking: -1
what? ....no man...just, no
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-09-30 00:55:57 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
we'l se about taht beeb. imoo sever gromsmans achilles tenond. lets ee you ouwin a chiampingship with orton oar girese.
YEA GO WERAS BOO
go packers woo :(
Submitted by ChristPuncher (user info) at 2006-09-30 00:46:28 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
COME JOIN THE NEXT SUPERBOWL CHAMPS
DA BEARSSSSS
DIS IS OUR YEAR
DA TEAM KNOW IT
DA CHICAGO FANS KNOW IT
AND AFTER THIS SUNDAY NIGHT THE REST OF U CHUMPS WILL BEGIN KNOW IT
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
GO BEARS WOO
rip sox boo
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-09-30 00:36:59 EDT (#)
Ranking: 1
?why the fuick is the line on thp packer sfso fukcing shimngh
godamn, and the colts and jets game was samy sterym wast it? that i s a bold pick. clots ofer jets. man , how ocmoefouertable are you p-utting money donw on that hsit>?
Submitted by BLITZKREIG_BOB (user info) at 2006-09-29 23:56:56 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
nevermind...
Submitted by Phallic_Cymbals (user info) at 2006-09-29 23:56:12 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
Submitted by BLITZKREIG_BOB (user info) at 2006-09-29 23:54:25 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
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