NFL Picks: Week 5 (559 hits)
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Submitted by Jay Peg (View user info) at 2006-10-06 19:53:39 EDT
Jesus christ the NFL is fucked up this year. Favorites over the past 2 weeks are 11-17. Home dogs, though, went 5-0 vs the spread.
Lemme say that again.
Every team that was an underdog at home beat the spread.
What does that mean? Every road favorite lost to the spread, obviously.
I went 7-7 last week overall, which is my first week at .500, but not bad considering the picks I thought were *locks* went 2-4, and my reaches went (Jets/Eagles/Texans) went 3-0.
Wierd strange shit, I tells ya.
So, quick recap now, I will pick the spread on each of the 14 games this week, highlighting 4 that I think will be the most interesting. I will also denote my six "personal picks".
My record against the spread this season: 34-25
My record on "Personal Picks": 17-7
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First game this week is going to be the Pittsburgh Steelers at the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are favored by 3.5 at home.
For 55 minutes, San Diego owned the Baltimore Ravens last week. But in the last 5 minutes, somehow McNair torched the defense for the win. Do I think San Diego is a bad team? Hell no. Schottenheimer just played Marty-ball in the 4th quarter and gave away another game. Shoudl I have seen this coming? Yes. I live in Denver. I've seen him do the same thing against the Broncos in Cleveland, Kansas City and San Diego. Shame on me.
Now the Chargers go back home, and face a Steelers team coming off of a bye week. Rothleisberger had a week to heal up some more, AND get reps with the first team. Remember, he logged fewer preseason snaps than any starting QB this year, and after the appendix removal, he's probably just NOW hitting 100%.
But it won't really matter, because while I think the SD offense/Pitt defense will be a stalemate, the San Diego defense should take charge of the Pittsburgh offense and keep them down.
My pick? Take the Chargers and points at home.
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Game two is the Denver Broncos at home, giving 4 to the aforementioned Baltimore Ravens.
I just said that the Ravens offense was owned by the Chargers defense for 55 minutes. And I am also saying that the Broncos defense is not as good OVERALL as the Chargers defense.
BUT.
The secondary in Denver is MUCH better than the one in San Diego with Champ Bailey, John Lynch and Darrent Williams. McNair won't get the chance late in the 4th to go down the field for the win. The first reason is because he's not at home, and McNair has proven that he CAN get rattled by a slow start onm the road. The second reason is because the Broncos offense won't keep the game close enough to matter. Tatum Bell is emerging as the feature back Shannahan thought he would be when he drafted him in the second round, and with Plummer getting a hold on his emotions, Smith/Walker is one of the most dangerous WR combos in football.
My pick? Denver wins going away. (Personal Pick #1)
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The third game this the Tennessee Titans going into the RCA Dome to play the Indianapolis Colts. And get this, the Titans are 18.5 point underdogs. 18.5!
So, why am I listing this game? What's the intrigue? It's whether or not the Colts can actually cover an almost 3TD spread. I mean, I know that the Titans *ARE* duking it out with Oakland for the title of "Worst Team In Football" right now. And I know this game is in Indy.
But something inside my gut is screaming "VINCE YOUNG BAY-BEE!"
I hate that. Young is either going to get bottled up trying to emulate Vick, or he's going to go insane on a Colts defense that doens't stop the run. There is no middle ground here. If this line were 10 or so, I'd feel confident picking the Colts, but it's 18.5 freaking points!
So, what do I pick? Pick Indy giving 18.5. But who knows.
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My fourth and final game is the Washington Redskins at the New York Giants.
No. I don't wanna talk Philly/Dallas.
You CAN NOT MAKE ME TALK ABOUT PHILLY DALLAS GOD DAMNIT...
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Fine. I'll talk Eagles/Cowboys. But I won't like it. Eagles at home, giving only 1.5 to Dallas.
1.5? You're kidding right? Who started making lines with emotions? Dallas on the road against an Eagles team that looks like the team that went to the Super Bowl?
I know Owens will probably have a big game, and I know that the fans in Philly are going to be more hostile than *this comment is edited for offensive content concerning a certain WWII leader* but come ON!
Take the Eagles and the points, for God's sake. (Personal Pick #2)
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Now for the rest of the NFL Week #5
Washington Redskins(+4.5) at New York Giants
Pick: Washington upsets
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Detroit Lions(+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Minnesota and the points
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Tampa Bay Bucaneers(+6.5) at New Orleans Saints
Pick: Saints BIG
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St. Louis Rams(-3) at Green Bay Packers
Pick: Green Bay upsets at home
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Miami Dolphins(+10) at New England Patriots
Pick: New England
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Buffalo Bills(+10) at Chicago Bears
Pick: GO BEARS WOOO! fusion fusion fusion (sorry)
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Cleveland Browns(+8) at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Carolina (however, since I have yet to pick the Panthers correctly this season, who knows)
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New York Jets(+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jets cover the seven points
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Kansas City Chiefs(-3.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: KC covers
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Oakland Raiders(+3) at San Francisco 49ers
Pick: San Francisco (C'mon, I'm hoping the Raiders go 0-16 so Al Davis can have a heart attack on draft day when Art Shell wants him to draft some lineman over Brady Quinn)
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Byw Weeks: Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks
User Reviews
Submitted by foster (user info) at 2006-11-11 11:59:08 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
http://www.ubersite.com/m/95651
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-10 17:45:00 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
9-5 overall. But a VERY nice 13-1 if I were just picking winners, with only Washington losing.
Submitted by Axolotl (user info) at 2006-10-09 14:01:00 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Fag below.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-09 13:43:16 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
I get what it all means, Nitty. (And I know lines are placed for just the reason you say. Because it's almost 50/50 that they actually cover)
But I'm going with spread for a few reasons. #1 is that the spread doesn't change much from house to house. If it's 7.5 at Hilton, it's probably 7-8 at Bally's or Ceasar's.
#2 is that money lines are real volitile depending on where you're looking. As an example, at Ceasars, they have Denver at -110 this week. Bally's is -135. (Not to mention that without a tipsheet, I can't find any +lines, since neither local paper posts any money line at all.)
And #3 is because it's a little harder to pick a spread than just W/L. The only team that lost that I thought would win outright was Washington. The other 4 loses were just spread beats. Ten/Ind, TB/NO, NYJ/Jax and KC/Ari. And I feel like a dip over Ten/Indy, because the line was 18, but no WAY did I even think it would be within 10, let alone a single. (And KC can lick my balls after dropping an egg like that in the first half)
Anywho, do you think I should just do W/L, then? If I can find (or if you can send me) a site that has the + and - money lines, I can always go for that.
mister.jay.peg.at.gmail.com`
Submitted by nitty34 (user info) at 2006-10-09 13:22:05 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Some day when I have more strength I'll explain to you how the 'favorite' vs. the 'underdog' works. It has very little to do with what the final score of the game is predicted to be. It's a tool used by bookmakers to split the public bet.
Historically, favorites do NOT cover the spread the majority of the time. Ergo, if you were to pick nothing but underdogs all season long, and bet the same amount each game, you would make a small amount of money.
Submitted by livEvil (user info) at 2006-10-09 11:03:37 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
You seem to have an inferiority complex that interferes with your well-being. You will die a bitter, old, lonely man in the years to come. It's not too late to make a change.
Get off my jock, twinkie.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-08 23:49:24 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
8-5. Yay San Diego!
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-08 20:20:49 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
7-5 in the early games. I knew I should have taken Tenn with the 18 points...
Oh, and KC. I hate KC. Give up a quick 14? Then you have it at the one with 2:30 left and you can't punch it in with Larry fucking Johnson? Fuck.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-08 20:14:02 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
I'm set at QB, thanks. I have Penniongtn as a backup and Carr as a starter.
Submitted by darko (user info) at 2006-10-08 20:01:17 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Hasselbeck for chargers D?
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-08 16:14:03 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
I nearly had an infarction over Indy/Tenn.
Holy shit the Colts looked bad...
Submitted by Bubba2341 (user info) at 2006-10-08 14:58:48 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by d_prime (user info) at 2006-10-08 14:45:09 (#)
Ranking: -2
OMG WTF TEAM SPORTZ LAWLSz111!11one11!
________________
Did you know the members of Rush played on a Canadian team, sponsored by Pepsi?
:-D
Submitted by d_prime (user info) at 2006-10-08 14:45:09 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
OMG WTF TEAM SPORTZ LAWLSz111!11one11!
Submitted by ChristPuncher (user info) at 2006-10-08 14:33:03 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
BEARS UP 27-0
AT HALFTIME
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
IM NOT HERE TO START NO TROUBLE
IM JUST HERE TO DO DA SUPERBOWL SHUFFLE
GO BEARS WOO!!!
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-10-08 06:44:56 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
I feel for you, ripple. I feel for you. It probably doesnt help matters that they call that shit football.
"Hey want to go watch some good ol' football on the tellie, chap?"
"FOOTBA--oh, football. Okay."
I couldnt live overseas. I'd get the shakes. I'd be like a patient escaped from the methadone clinic. It would not be pretty.
Submitted by ripple (user info) at 2006-10-08 06:39:07 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
im so sad im in europe for football season...
i miss watching the monday night games. and the sunday games. and just the games in general.
and the bears are actually good this year. damn.
i mean, i like soccer and all... but i need my american football :(. thats me crying.
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-10-08 04:06:33 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
My college football picks were awful this week. I had Oregon over Cal, Oklahoma over Texas, Illinois over Indiana, and Auburn over Arkansas. I picked Clemson over Wake, and Penn State over the Goofers, and both should have been losses. I'm glad I didnt have any money on these.
So waht I'm saying is this weekend is looking like shit and if you want to make some money, pick the opposite of everything I wrote a couple replies down.
Submitted by Wiggles (user info) at 2006-10-07 19:34:33 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
eat a nigger
Submitted by paint_it_black (user info) at 2006-10-07 10:24:11 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
http://www.ubersite.com/m/94017
fagboy below
Submitted by Shlongy (user info) at 2006-10-07 10:16:47 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
Fag below.
Submitted by paint_it_black (user info) at 2006-10-07 09:05:14 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
No Comment
Submitted by UnderOathMeal (user info) at 2006-10-06 22:01:37 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
This is the best you'll get from me. Think of it as +2 post, -2 poster.
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-10-06 21:13:11 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
Hopefully the Raiders dont take a lineman, because his name would be Joe Thomas. I hate the Raiders.
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-10-06 21:12:15 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
My picks. Purely winners and losers, none of that spread. I dont like spread on my sandwiches and I dont likeit on my football picks.
Steelers over Chargers. I hope I'm wrong, though, because LT is my running back in my money fantasy league and I need him to put up some numbers.
Broncos over Ravens. Ravens' defense is a little better, Broncos' offense is a lot better.
Colts over Titans. Buh?
Cowboys over Eagles. I was awake for the first half of Monday night's game, when the Eagles were down 9-7. I understand Westbrook was out, but the Cowboys are a better team than the Packers.
Vikings over Lions. I dont know why, but I want the Lions to start winning. They wont this week.
Bucs over Saints.
Rams over Packers.
Patriots over Dolphins. The Dolphins SUCK. I think they'll get better. Right now they're bad.
Bears over Bills.
Panthers over Browns.
Jags over Jets.
Cardinals over Chiefs.
49ers over Raiders. Alex Smith has looked good when I've been watching. Apparently he has sucked big time the rest of the time. I like the 49ers receivers.
Submitted by joedaddy (user info) at 2006-10-06 21:07:11 EDT (#)
Ranking: 1
i'm glad the silver + pink are playing the 49ers @ Monster Park this weekend so THEY DON'T FUCK UP THE FIELD for the A's
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO A's
Submitted by AsshOly (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:52:38 EDT (#)
Ranking: -1
Yeah, let's not give any credit to McNair for showing why he ought to be a Hall of Famer some day. He had defenders in his face on every play and threw perfect fucking strikes all teh way down the field. Why don't people notice this? He picked apart the defense and got his team the win, because he is a winner. He's a great quarterback and that's what great quarterbacks do. You've seen Schottenheimer give games away? I've seen McNair singlehandedly take games away. This is just another to add to that list. He does this a lot.
I'll come back with my predictions and some +2's in a minute.
Submitted by Razor (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:44:00 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
+2 for putting your neck out there.
With that said, how the fuck did you and everyone else in the national media see the Ravens "owned" by the Chargers for 55 minutes of that game? The Ravens completely owned the Chargers for the second half...
#1 Ravens D picks off Rivers and offense marches down the short field for a touchdown.
#2 Ravens tight end Wilcox fumbles ball on *1* yard line
#3 Derrick Mason, very sure handed receiver, loses a certain touchdown pass in the Sun.
The Chargers did not throw that game away, they are lucky to have not lost by 14 MORE points.
Submitted by Chroniclysm (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:35:45 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Giants are going to beat Redkins.
Submitted by LSD420 (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:09:00 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
0!!!!
Submitted by LSD420 (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:08:19 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I'm sorry we had words... make-up sex?
Submitted by Arizhel (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:08:13 EDT (#)
Ranking: 1
Meh. I'll take your word for it. I like the game, but don't keep track of the stats and such. I'm lazy, mostly.
What I do know is the Steelers have been playing like ass. I hope they win soon. People get fuggin mean here in PA when the Steelers are losing. I've honestly felt really bad for Roethlisberger watching the last few games. It's been painfully obvious that he just wasn't up to snuff. Maybe this week things'll be better.
I probably won't get to see the Packers game here either. Meh.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:07:56 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
???
Oooooooooooooooooooook.
Submitted by LSD420 (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:07:56 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
I NEVER LOVED YOU, HOWARD! IT WAS ALL A SHAM! NOW YOUR BANK ACCOUNT'S USED UP AND I'M LEAVING!
Submitted by LSD420 (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:07:26 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
I love you, howard...
Submitted by LSD420 (user info) at 2006-10-06 20:07:00 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
what the fuck does any of this mean and why does it matter? tell the women you meet at speed date tonight, but not us, you ugly fucker.
Submitted by jgreening (user info) at 2006-10-06 19:55:48 EDT (#)
Ranking: 0
Sorry, forgot to list personal picks 3-6.
#3 New Orleans over Tampa
#4 New England over Miami
#5 Chicago over Buffalo
#6 Kansas City over Arizona.