Boring technical analysis (844 hits)
Category: NoneRating: 1.03 on 39 reviews (Rate this item) (V)
Submitted by locksly (View user info) at 2007-01-30 02:45:41 EST
This was going to be a quick post for lungfish who accidentally bought a stock cakked nissen, thinking it was nissan motors...
But I thought WTF and kept going, in an attmept to edumacate the average uber user in technical analysis.
Its really fucking boring for most people, but just think of the lots of money and little effort angle and you'll make it through to the end. Maybe.
It may give you some background as to why I thought I was the shit in the 'life story in a jpeg' series I'm doing:
Part 1 http://www.ubersite.com/m/98062
Part 2 http://www.ubersite.com/m/98158
Also, I should note that although I include the Dow Jones index in here, I personally think we will eventually have a huge ETS style meltdown of our economy, starting between the years of 2008 to 2012. But I still think its okay to trade in our current economic environment because the meltdown has not started yet.
I'm working on Part 3 of the life story shit and will post soon...
apologies for not submitting in 800, the share charts don't take kindly to being shrunk.
User Reviews
Submitted by FartSmeller (user info) at 2007-05-11 12:54:05 EDT (#)
Ranking: 2
No Comment
Submitted by FartSmeller (user info) at 2007-05-11 12:28:27 EDT (#)
Ranking: -2
Apparently, I'm a faggot (Rating: 1.75 on 77 reviews, last by corn_nugget 80 days ago)
Submitted by locksly (View user info) at 2007-02-12 03:05:21 EST
-------
Submitted by messmind (user info) at 2007-02-01 17:08:29 EST (#)
Ranking: 1
No Comment
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-02-01 16:36:48 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
without gloating too much, the DOW is now trading above 12600, so I was correct but I didn't put any money on it so who cares and there was a 50% chance of me being right or wrong anyway!
Submitted by mrnoisy (user info) at 2007-01-30 22:51:24 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
lol
Submitted by homer42 (user info) at 2007-01-30 22:10:04 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
LOL.
"You're an idiot and you don't know anything about widgets. I know a widget sales man that tells me the real deal."
Submitted by sicosemen (user info) at 2007-01-30 07:43:08 (#)
Ranking: -2
I have a brother who is an internal annuity wholesaler. I'll be sure to take advise and analysis tips from someone who lost all their money...
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 19:21:48 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by William_Q_Percy (user info) at 2007-01-30 18:31:20 (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 17:22:25 (#)
Ranking: 0
Very Interesting Indeed...
In reference to Buffet Criteria:
When looking at buying equities I look at debt levels, interest cover, increased revenue growth and a specific price to earnings ratio and I understand how that could be used to purchase an entire company.
After all, its what buffet does, albeit on a much larger scale. Of course he does it with insurance which gives him access to the pooled funds...
Personally I do not like 'hands on' investing and the initial capital would be locked up and not liquid anymore.
That being said, it does seem like an excellent way to leverage into an industry and perhaps buy another company that would have some synergy with the original company etc.
I still see it as much riskier than I what I was doing (I am not trading at the moment subject to an SEC investigation - which is another post altogether).
But it would build significant wealth nevertheless.
Thanks for sharing.
--
Obviously, you are going to modify what Buffet uses as his criteria to suit your own needs (as you should). Yet, one of his foremost philosophies is to "buy, hold and prosper". It is clear that you do not buy into this idea if you are worried about locking your capital up for a timeframe of 3 - 5 years.
Obviously, trusting the operating management team is paramount. As the owner, all I do is facilitate the managers in growing the company with their own intellectual capital and abilities. I am as hands off as it gets. If I were an expert in the industry, I would start the business up myself and sell it to a guy who is willing to pay for my effort. What I am essentially doing is investing in people and intelligence. It is rare, but it is out there, and it flourishes if you let it. It is the ONLY thing that can truly create wealth.
I will not make an offer on a company if I do not personally meet and get to know the old owners, and prospective management team, either.
You don't have to necessarily leverage your equity into the same industry, although the opportunity is sometimes there to do so.
What is your investment philosophy? I'd like to hear what you do in order to mitigate risk.
___________
Well I plan on doing a post about it but I will give you a quick run down...
I personally think the US economy is going to to tank as in a depression by the year 2012 - that is why I am worried about liquidity. A lot of people don't agree but I keep that in mind when investing.
I have 4 portfloios (well had)
a) is short term trading for monthly cashflow - forex, futures oversease indices etc.
b) mutual funds - boutique funds, wholesale funds, not for regular retail or mum and dad investors
c) long term buy and hold 'buffet' quality stocks (NONE are US stocks, Australian and Europe stocks)
d) BRIC funds - Brazil, Russia, India, China developing countries etc. these are domiciled in Europe and Australia.
Then there is property - I own my house outright in Paramus NJ and pending legal problems will sell this and rent until I move overseas (I am that serious about thinking there will be a depression)
I also own a small apartment block in Sydney Australia and want to buy a farm in Australia or New Zealand.
To be honest with you (and if you read my 'life in a jpeg' series you will soon find out.)
My assets are frozen at the moment pending an SEC investigation. So I can't really do anything unitl a settlement is reached and hopefully I get to keep a substantial part of what I have gained.
I have also had silent shares in restaurants and a liquor shop but nothing substantial all I really learnt was its rare to be able to trust someone after you have lent them money!
Submitted by William_Q_Percy (user info) at 2007-01-30 18:31:20 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 17:22:25 (#)
Ranking: 0
Very Interesting Indeed...
In reference to Buffet Criteria:
When looking at buying equities I look at debt levels, interest cover, increased revenue growth and a specific price to earnings ratio and I understand how that could be used to purchase an entire company.
After all, its what buffet does, albeit on a much larger scale. Of course he does it with insurance which gives him access to the pooled funds...
Personally I do not like 'hands on' investing and the initial capital would be locked up and not liquid anymore.
That being said, it does seem like an excellent way to leverage into an industry and perhaps buy another company that would have some synergy with the original company etc.
I still see it as much riskier than I what I was doing (I am not trading at the moment subject to an SEC investigation - which is another post altogether).
But it would build significant wealth nevertheless.
Thanks for sharing.
--
Obviously, you are going to modify what Buffet uses as his criteria to suit your own needs (as you should). Yet, one of his foremost philosophies is to "buy, hold and prosper". It is clear that you do not buy into this idea if you are worried about locking your capital up for a timeframe of 3 - 5 years.
Obviously, trusting the operating management team is paramount. As the owner, all I do is facilitate the managers in growing the company with their own intellectual capital and abilities. I am as hands off as it gets. If I were an expert in the industry, I would start the business up myself and sell it to a guy who is willing to pay for my effort. What I am essentially doing is investing in people and intelligence. It is rare, but it is out there, and it flourishes if you let it. It is the ONLY thing that can truly create wealth.
I will not make an offer on a company if I do not personally meet and get to know the old owners, and prospective management team, either.
You don't have to necessarily leverage your equity into the same industry, although the opportunity is sometimes there to do so.
What is your investment philosophy? I'd like to hear what you do in order to mitigate risk.
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 17:22:25 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by William_Q_Percy (user info) at 2007-01-30 17:13:29 (#)
Ranking: 1
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 15:59:22 (#)
Ranking: 0
Interesting...
DO you need significant capital to purchase these businesses or do you takeover existing debt or both?
---
The capital required to do this is only as signifcant as the purchase price of the business, as generally speaking we are looking to put up about 25% of the pruchase price up front. Ideally, 50% will come in the form of vendor take back (with interest), and the remaining 25% will be put up by a lending facility/bank (also with interest).
Obviously, the capital you end up investing varies widely depending on what sort of business you are purchasing. If you have $250K, for example, you should be looking for a company that will sell for about one million, and will have an after tax net cashflow more or less equivalent to what you are putting up.
Debt, especially bad debt (i.e. back taxes), or aged receivables is usually a non-starter and can kill a deal, which is why we run purchase investigations before signing anything over. Normally, you can knock down the purchase price based on any debt they are carrying if you are going to take it on, otherwise, have them deal with it before you close the sale.
You mention buffet criteria, which is similar to what we use to buy our companies.
It needs to have a history -> 10 - 15 years minimum, and go as close to an essential service as possible.
It needs to have consistent metrics (i.e. no severe growth or decline year over year in its history)
Owner involvement needs to be a minimum, so you need to buy a company that has management and staff in place.
And you need to find an owner who is motivated enough to engage in a vendor take back.
Again, if you can convince the vendor to carry 50%, front 25% yourself, the assets of the company will usually be enough security to help the lending facility loan you the remaining 25% (but not always). This way, you are leveraging your money 3 : 1 and will have the company paid off in 3 - 5 years depending on performance.
The best part is that you can turn around and leverage the equity you have in the company, combined with the cashflow, into your next pruchase, which will typically be on a larger scale. Not always though... maybe you use it to buy out a competitor or something.
It is not as hard to find companies like this as you might imagine; and the more involved you get in the business community, the more your reputation of being an acquisition machine will draw more, bigger and better opportunities your way.
_________
Very Interesting Indeed...
In reference to Buffet Criteria:
When looking at buying equities I look at debt levels, interest cover, increased revenue growth and a specific price to earnings ratio and I understand how that could be used to purchase an entire company.
After all, its what buffet does, albeit on a much larger scale. Of course he does it with insurance which gives him access to the pooled funds...
Personally I do not like 'hands on' investing and the initial capital would be locked up and not liquid anymore.
That being said, it does seem like an excellent way to leverage into an industry and perhaps buy another company that would have some synergy with the original company etc.
I still see it as much riskier than I what I was doing (I am not trading at the moment subject to an SEC investigation - which is another post altogether).
But it would build significant wealth nevertheless.
Thanks for sharing.
Submitted by William_Q_Percy (user info) at 2007-01-30 17:13:29 EST (#)
Ranking: 1
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 15:59:22 (#)
Ranking: 0
Interesting...
DO you need significant capital to purchase these businesses or do you takeover existing debt or both?
---
The capital required to do this is only as signifcant as the purchase price of the business, as generally speaking we are looking to put up about 25% of the pruchase price up front. Ideally, 50% will come in the form of vendor take back (with interest), and the remaining 25% will be put up by a lending facility/bank (also with interest).
Obviously, the capital you end up investing varies widely depending on what sort of business you are purchasing. If you have $250K, for example, you should be looking for a company that will sell for about one million, and will have an after tax net cashflow more or less equivalent to what you are putting up.
Debt, especially bad debt (i.e. back taxes), or aged receivables is usually a non-starter and can kill a deal, which is why we run purchase investigations before signing anything over. Normally, you can knock down the purchase price based on any debt they are carrying if you are going to take it on, otherwise, have them deal with it before you close the sale.
You mention buffet criteria, which is similar to what we use to buy our companies.
It needs to have a history -> 10 - 15 years minimum, and go as close to an essential service as possible.
It needs to have consistent metrics (i.e. no severe growth or decline year over year in its history)
Owner involvement needs to be a minimum, so you need to buy a company that has management and staff in place.
And you need to find an owner who is motivated enough to engage in a vendor take back.
Again, if you can convince the vendor to carry 50%, front 25% yourself, the assets of the company will usually be enough security to help the lending facility loan you the remaining 25% (but not always). This way, you are leveraging your money 3 : 1 and will have the company paid off in 3 - 5 years depending on performance.
The best part is that you can turn around and leverage the equity you have in the company, combined with the cashflow, into your next pruchase, which will typically be on a larger scale. Not always though... maybe you use it to buy out a competitor or something.
It is not as hard to find companies like this as you might imagine; and the more involved you get in the business community, the more your reputation of being an acquisition machine will draw more, bigger and better opportunities your way.
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 15:59:22 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by William_Q_Percy (user info) at 2007-01-30 10:52:20 (#)
Ranking: 0
Watch out for when Cameco finally reapirs their mine in Cigar Lake, SK. When it watered out, Uranium prices increased signifcantly, and stand to level out once their production comes back online.
And yeah, I have a guy at the office who does the candlestick analsis and I am not quite sure what it gets him.
My investment method involves purchasing cashflow in the form of existing businesses through vendor takeback, and then leveraging the assets/cashflow/equity of those business into more and/or larger acquisitions. Kind of like real estate, but only if the buildings were able to pay you roughly 25% of the purchase price per year, as opposed to just barely covering the mortgage payments.
_________
Interesting...
DO you need significant capital to purchase these businesses or do you takeover existing debt or both?
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 15:41:33 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by sicosemen (user info) at 2007-01-30 07:43:08 (#)
Ranking: -2
I have a brother who is an internal annuity wholesaler. I'll be sure to take advise and analysis tips from someone who lost all their money...
________
1) I lost all my money over 6 years ago, you'll have to keep reading the series to see how I'm swimming today.
2) Your brother does not make money from trading - he is paid a salary and probably a significant bonus.
3) The majority of brokers, house traders and fund managers are salesmen, not investors.
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 15:38:46 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2007-01-30 10:28:06 (#)
Ranking: 2
Nice one, I've never been a fan of technical analysis, and I think you'd agree that a combination of fundamental + technical is really the right key to find out a companys undiscovered wealth. Some of it works--price momentum, MACD, etc, but then again some of it is just technomath stroke material.
That out of the way--my money is on uranium and zinc.
________
To be honest I am a bigger fan of Warren Buffet and fundamental analysis than tech analysis BUT if you are short term trading or trading forex or futures, obviously you need to use tecnical rather than fundamental.
That being said the easiest money I have ever made (meaning least amount of stress) has been simply holding a few Australin mining companies which were selected using Buffet criteria.
Submitted by St_Jimmy (user info) at 2007-01-30 14:55:33 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Interesting
Submitted by homer42 (user info) at 2007-01-30 14:01:00 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
where can i learn more?
Submitted by TheUniter (user info) at 2007-01-30 13:55:00 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by William_Q_Percy (user info) at 2007-01-30 10:52:20 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2007-01-30 10:28:06 (#)
Ranking: 2
Nice one, I've never been a fan of technical analysis, and I think you'd agree that a combination of fundamental + technical is really the right key to find out a companys undiscovered wealth. Some of it works--price momentum, MACD, etc, but then again some of it is just technomath stroke material.
That out of the way--my money is on uranium and zinc.
---
Watch out for when Cameco finally reapirs their mine in Cigar Lake, SK. When it watered out, Uranium prices increased signifcantly, and stand to level out once their production comes back online.
And yeah, I have a guy at the office who does the candlestick analsis and I am not quite sure what it gets him.
My investment method involves purchasing cashflow in the form of existing businesses through vendor takeback, and then leveraging the assets/cashflow/equity of those business into more and/or larger acquisitions. Kind of like real estate, but only if the buildings were able to pay you roughly 25% of the purchase price per year, as opposed to just barely covering the mortgage payments.
Submitted by Shlongy (user info) at 2007-01-30 10:38:15 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Fuck "technical analysis".
Throw darts like all the geniuses do.
Or, have a monkey pick some stocks for you.
And finally, sink a bunch of dough into "International Mutual Funds".
You'll be loaded like Shlongy in no time.
One last tip: Wanna know how to have a million dollars in the market?
Start with 2 million.
testing...2...2...is this thing on?
Submitted by shitfuck (user info) at 2007-01-30 10:28:06 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Nice one, I've never been a fan of technical analysis, and I think you'd agree that a combination of fundamental + technical is really the right key to find out a companys undiscovered wealth. Some of it works--price momentum, MACD, etc, but then again some of it is just technomath stroke material.
That out of the way--my money is on uranium and zinc.
Submitted by lungfish (user info) at 2007-01-30 09:32:04 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Very interesting. So really, what your saying is I drink too much.
Submitted by sicosemen (user info) at 2007-01-30 07:48:07 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
so did I
l
l
l
l
l
v
Submitted by sicosemen (user info) at 2007-01-30 07:44:55 EST (#)
Ranking: -2
And you spelled pyschology wrong, f.y.i.
Submitted by sicosemen (user info) at 2007-01-30 07:43:08 EST (#)
Ranking: -2
I have a brother who is an internal annuity wholesaler. I'll be sure to take advise and analysis tips from someone who lost all their money...
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 07:37:28 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
hmmm... I've got on-line and still can't tell my arse from my elbow.
You better make this post for the layman Locksy!
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 06:19:48 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 06:04:30 (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 05:40:34 (#)
Ranking: 0
Cool... put a post together if you can.
I'm checking out online simulators as we speak.
--------
Yeah... you put your cock in the USB port.
Submitted by rad1101 (user info) at 2007-01-30 06:18:35 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
sybian?
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 06:10:35 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Stimulators?
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 06:04:30 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 05:40:34 (#)
Ranking: 0
Cool... put a post together if you can.
I'm checking out online simulators as we speak.
Submitted by rad1101 (user info) at 2007-01-30 06:00:51 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
love it
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 05:40:34 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 05:32:06 (#)
Ranking: 0
$125 is around the £75 mark, so peanuts.... but this doesn't explain HOW I do it... that is the scary part... setting up accounts, who to contact, deal through etc and so on.
and yes I'm in England.
______________
ALright Beano, let me double check on the terminology etc. they use in England and I'll do a 'how to' post starting from chosing the broker to completing your first trade...
CFD's are massive in England, and I can't remember the name of a sound company who deal in them but google CFD (cash for difference) and try to find someone who is aligned with a major bank over there...
No Problemo,
Everyone has to start somewhere.
BTW - CFD's have a bad name depending on who you listen to, this is mainly because people were getting accounts without realising the massive downside that can occur and when they lost money they complained loudly. they are good financial instruments if you trade properly, which you will.
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 05:32:06 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 03:34:43 (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 03:17:46 (#)
Ranking: 0
i'm liking this shit you post but will most likely never have the balls to invest.
________
Seriously?
Just start paper trading, why don't you pretend that you bought the dow jones today and see if it goes up during the week?
The chart is right there, I think the last price was about 12500, and if you are in England (for some reason I think you are) you can trade this through CFD's and it would cost you $125 US (whatever that is in pounds) to trade 1 contract, if it moves to 12600 in a week you would make $100 US or nearly double your buy in price of $125.
almost double in a week?
Thats too good a return to use the excuse you have no balls.
If you are in England you are in a better position than the US to trade as well (personal opinion)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$125 is around the £75 mark, so peanuts.... but this doesn't explain HOW I do it... that is the scary part... setting up accounts, who to contact, deal through etc and so on.
and yes I'm in England.
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 03:37:47 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Forgot to link this in the post: http://www.ubersite.com/m/95764
Its the lungfish original post about this stock.
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 03:34:43 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 03:17:46 (#)
Ranking: 0
i'm liking this shit you post but will most likely never have the balls to invest.
________
Seriously?
Just start paper trading, why don't you pretend that you bought the dow jones today and see if it goes up during the week?
The chart is right there, I think the last price was about 12500, and if you are in England (for some reason I think you are) you can trade this through CFD's and it would cost you $125 US (whatever that is in pounds) to trade 1 contract, if it moves to 12600 in a week you would make $100 US or nearly double your buy in price of $125.
almost double in a week?
Thats too good a return to use the excuse you have no balls.
If you are in England you are in a better position than the US to trade as well (personal opinion)
Submitted by Beano312003 (user info) at 2007-01-30 03:17:46 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
i'm liking this shit you post but will most likely never have the balls to invest.
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 02:59:53 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by forthewin (user info) at 2007-01-30 02:51:17 (#)
Ranking: 2
I was entertained.
______
Read 'life story in a jpeg' series, a bit of this stuff plus my monental fuck ups as I learnt how to trade this stuff
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 02:58:32 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Submitted by swimmingbirdblue (user info) at 2007-01-30 02:56:42 (#)
Ranking: 0
Less interesting than the previous 2.
___
This isn't part of the series... just a bit about tech analysis. I'll post part 3 tomorrow - its more entertaining.
Submitted by swimmingbirdblue (user info) at 2007-01-30 02:56:42 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
Less interesting than the previous 2.
Submitted by forthewin (user info) at 2007-01-30 02:51:17 EST (#)
Ranking: 2
I was entertained.
Submitted by locksly (user info) at 2007-01-30 02:50:56 EST (#)
Ranking: 0
DISCLAIMER
*the above does not constitute financial advice and does not tke into consideration your specific financial position, I could be an alter for fucks sake.